The Discretionary GPS Portfolio is managed based on the Goodman Price/Volume Stock Selection System, using Fred's discretion as to:

• the selection of positions in S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100
• taking short positions in the S&P Depository Trust (SPY) or the NASDAQ 100 Tracking Stock (QQQQ) to hedge overall equity exposure. Short positions will generally be taken only during Trend Indicator Downtrend states.
• for comparison purposes a benchmark including 2/3 S&P 100 and 1/3 NASDAQ 100 is calculated.

It's a "paper portfolio" -- sometimes it will reflect in a general way what Fred is doing for his own account and for accounts he manages.

The Portfolio began on December 31, 2005 with an imaginary $1 million, and was set to an initial Net Asset Value of $10. Changes in positions will generally be mentioned in Fred's daily "Technical Analysis" reports the same day they are made in the portfolio. For simplicity we ignore transaction costs (which would reduce reported performance) and dividends (which would increase reported performance). We accrue interest on cash balances daily at the 90-day T-bill rate. There may be significant differences, beyond our control, between the performance of this hypothetical portfolio and an otherwise similar actual portfolio.

One of the advantages of the trading technique used in the Discretionary GPS Portfolio is that it is fully invested at all times unless general market indicators suggest that we do otherwise. Accordingly, when it is fully invested, a buy or sale has no effect on the total amount invested -- it is merely a transfer of assets from SPY or QQQQ to a specific stock -- there is no change in the number of dollars at risk.

Also, since we know at the outset that not every stock is going to be a winner, a stop loss is selected, and when it is triggered the funds released simply go back into an ETF when general market indicators permit it. When a stock closes below its stop its price appears in the table in bold red type, and it is sold the next day if it was not already sold during the day the stop was violated. The object is to let our winners run, but we do reduce our risk at the target price, and often raise the stop loss for the balance of the position.

In between the stop and the target there is absolutely nothing to do unless the market as a whole makes a sell signal, or if a specific stock gives a GPS sell signal. If there is a general market sell we close ETF positions, and we may hedge our remaining individual long positions with ProShares inverse ETFs.

This page is normally updated daily after the market close, but may be updated more frequently as necessary.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Trade History

Gain (loss) expressed as a percentage of the total portfolio value starting in 2008