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Books
I've Read and Recommend
Monday, November 2nd, 2008
Fred
Goodman There
are no clunkers here. The
following are books I have read and found either interesting in general, or vital
to my investing techniques. Each has a relationship to investing, but some are
of general rather than specific interest. They appear below in no order other
than chronological with the most recent appearing at the top. I will continue
to add to the list when appropriate.
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Nathan Lewis,
in Gold,
The Once and Future Money has traced the history of
money from the ancients through Clinton and has documented many
monetary disasters. In every case, without exception, spending
was raised to the point of insolvency by every failed government
and taxation was increased to the point of civil unrest, exodus
or overthrow.
There have been many
bailouts throughout history and in every case the bankers have
been bailed out while the shareholders have been left swinging
in the wind. Resolution has always required stabilization of the
currency and in most cases, gold came to the rescue.
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I read Anatomy
of the Bear, by Russell Napier in July when
it was optional, it is mandatory now.
This excellent book
discusses the similarities between four major bear markets; 1921,
1932, 1949 and 1982, and how to know when to get back in. One
of the most important similarities was that good news appeared
in the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere at least three
months before the market hit bottom.
This is counter to
conventional wisdom that suggests stock market lows lead economic
recovery by 6 to 9 months -- quite the opposite is true, so there's
likely to be a long road ahead of us.
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I am not a conspiracy
theorist. I do not accept as fact the belief expressed in The
Creature from Jekyll Island that Winston Churchill
was complicit in the sinking of the Lusitania or that
the Federal Reserve is the tool of Socialists.
However, most of this
book presents in clear and compelling terms how the Federal Reserve
works, how money is created from thin air and the mechanism behind
the recent takeovers of financial institutions like Fannie
Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Bear Stearns,
etc. As a bonus, it reads like an action novel.
Congress is
quick to blame "big business" for our difficulties,
but they should reserve most of the blame for themselves. Google
"Fannie Mae lobbyists" for names of the extortionists.
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Alexander Elder's
new book Sell
and Sell Short, was certainly timely, coming out just
before the market self-destructed, but it is important in all
market climates to know when to sell a good thing as well as one
that is underperforming.
He discusses the selection
of a target in addition to a stop, and teaches how to use it to
get out when the getting is good.
The book is an important
supplement to his classic, Come
Into My Trading Room, in which he presented his Kangaroo
Tail trade, to which I have referred many times in these reports.
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The collapse of the
subprime market is just the latest in a string of financial
collapses and crashes, and more will follow. The crash of 1987,
the Asian Contagion and the collapse of Long Term Capital
Management had a common thread -- positive feedback -- and
the fact that Richard Bookstaber, the author of A
Demon of Our Own Design, was working as a risk manager
during all three crises makes him eminently suited to explain
their cause.
Of more interest are
the lessons we can learn about designing our own investment program
and how we can avoid the many pitfalls. The book is extremely
well written and reads like an action novel.
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The conditions that
existed in 1907 when many banks failed and businesses went bankrupt,
strike me as being very similar to present conditions. To add
another eerie similarity to the present, the actions of J.
P. Morgan did much to shorten and finally end the panic, just
as his namesake was involved with Bear Stearns last week.
The
Panic of 1907, by Robert Bruner and Sean
Carr, is not only informative, but it is a page turner. They
made the events understandable and exciting to read --
well worth spending a few hours to appreciate the potential of
our current situation.
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For a better appreciation
of the importance of probability in investing, I suggest Chances
Are, by Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan.
They discuss the history of probability from Aristotle to the
present. It was written by a student of European history who has
written and produced films for PBS, and a mathematician/archaeologist.
This well-written book
covers gambling, weather, warfare, medical treatment and other
subjects -- it will give you an understanding of the role that
probability plays in the stock market, and in life in general.
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Last week I tried to
take a break from the stock market by reading Endless
Universe by Steinhardt and Turok. It
didn't quite work because they presented a theory that the universe
has neither a beginning or an end -- when one cycle ends another
starts, like the market seems to be repeating 2001.
Nevertheless, the book
is the best I've read on the subject. Without any math at all,
the authors were able to paint a clear historical picture of cosmology
including the latest research available in 2007. They also
discussed where research will be taking us in the next 10 years.
It's an excellent read.
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Paul Samuelson said,
"The stock market is a great leading indicator, it has forecast
10 out of the last seven recessions."However,
the opposite side of the coin is what Joseph Ellis spent
much of his time discussing in his must-read 2005 book, Ahead
of the Curve.
Ellis shows that by the
time a recession has started the stock market has generally fallen
at least 12% from its high, so obsessing over a possible recession
is not going to save your from losses.
He then analyzes economic
indicators that have helped forecast recessions with enough lead
time to avoid the carnage.
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In addition to providing
information that will improve the technique of even experienced
professionals, Marcel Link offers in depth descriptions of
price movements that clarify one's understanding of previously opaque
chart patterns. Foremost among them is a discussion of the relationship
between price and volume that lies behind Benjamin Crocker's
Price/Volume Charts.
I heartily recommend
High
Probability Trading because I guarantee that you will
discover many trading tricks that will make money for you on your
first trade.
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I usually dislike alarmist
books. They have been coming out every few years for as long as
I can remember and I cannot think of one that was both accurate
and without an ulterior motive. Crash-Proof:
How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse by Peter
Schiff is no exception, he spends half the book selling his
brokerage house, but many of his points made a lot of sense even
if his disaster scenario is, hopefully, dead wrong.
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In addition to limiting risk by
selecting firm mental stop losses, the size of the position relative to
your portfolio size is critical. I have read several books that address the subject,
but probably the most thorough is Trade
Your Way to Financial Freedom, an important book by Van Tharp. The
method I have chosen to determine position size is to set three times the Average
Trading Range (ATR) equal to the maximum dollar risk I am willing to take. |
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In his book Come
Into My Trading Room, Alexander Elder provides the benefit of his
experience in trading by discussing in detail three important concepts:
Mind, Method and Money Management. While he occasionally strays from his message
to indulge in personal stories, I found the book extremely helpful in all three
areas and have made real dollars immediately by following his techniques. The
Method part was of particular interest to me since in it he discusses his personal
technical indicators and trading tools, but I was probably more in need of the
"Mind" section since he addressed those characteristics that differentiate
between anxiety and calm and that often represent the difference between success
and failure. |
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In his book Money
Mischief, the late Milton Friedman presents the research behind
his well known theory that "substantial inflation is always and everywhere
a monetary phenomenon." Simply stated this means that you don't create
inflation by raising prices or stop it imposing price controls. The only way to
create inflation is for a government to print money, thereby increasing the supply
of money without there being a commensurate increase in production. The
book is written with almost no math and provides a painless introduction to a
vitally important subject. |
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If you wonder how big your position in a stock should be relative to the size
of your portfolio, and where you should place a protective stop loss, Trend
Trading by Kedrick Brown is a book that will help you. Trend
Trading presents the "how to" while Trading in The Zone provides the
"why." |
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I can't say enough about Trading
In The Zone, by Mark Douglas. If you have ever thought a stock
would go up, bought it and then blamed yourself when it went down, you have to
read this. Douglas shows us how to handle a position -- once we have decided to
trade it -- in an automatic and consistent manner, and to take advantage of an
edge without self-doubt. |
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All right, I admit it, even though I have spent decades studying technical
anallysis, I have had several sojourns into fundamentals. I've read a score of
books on intermarket analysis, value investing, earnings analysis and earlier
books about economic indicators, but until I found Bernard
Baumohl's The
Secrets of Economic Indicators
-- which in my opinion is required reading -- I could not get into it.
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I don't think it is possible to read The
World Is Flat by
Thomas L. Friedman and not run out and buy Indian stocks. The story
of outsourcing and its effect on the present and future growth in India is just
too compelling. I only wish I had read the book last summer after the big correction,
rather than now. The
book is almost 600 pages, but it reads quickly, is well written and in reality
you will get the message from the first 325 pages. The rest has a bit of politics
thrown in which I found I could take or leave. However, the body of the book discusses
business in general, not just in India, and things I found so important for my
grandchildren's education that I sent copies to my daughters.
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Terry Burnham in Mean
Markets and Lizard Brains has written a book that is perfect for the
summer -- well written, entertaining and at the same time it provides a good grounding
in behavioral finanance and macroeconomics. Here you will find evidence to support
the observation that things are different from the 1980s and 1990s, and suggestions
for conducting your investment program accordingly. It is a book I liked a lot
and strongly recommend. |
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The
(MIS)Behavior Of Markets, by Benoit Mandelbrot
is an absolutely must-read book by Benoit Mandelbrot, the mathematician
who was deeply involved in the early days of chaos theory and fractals. He is
well grounded in the stock market, and has studied price extremes of securities
for 50 years. The math is conveniently tucked away in the appendix where it can
be easily ignored. If you measure the value of a book in terms of the new understanding
it gives you about things with which you are already familiar, this book rates
near the top. As the author correctly warns in the first pages, the book will
not make you a fortune, but it will help to think more clearly about price movements,
and it may save you from losing a fortune. |
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Thomas Bulkowski's Encyclopedia
of Chart Patterns is the definitive work in which to find information
describing the myriad of patterns found in charts of individual stocks and indices.
It is the first and only place that I go to to find out if a chart pattern is
worth trading. In it he exhaustively defines and describes the success and
failure rates of over 75 generic patterns and presents specific profit-loss returns
with targets and logical entry points and exits.
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If you have ever wondered as I have,
how the stock market can make sudden reversals when there was nothing markedly
different in the world situation (there is still shooting in the Middle East),
or in the economic fundamentals, you will be interested in reading Mark Buchanan's
entertaining and well-written book Ubiquity. He
explains the similarity between wild moves in the stock market and natural occurrences
such as earthquakes, hurricanes, avalanches and forest fires. How it is possible
to believe in the efficient market hypothesis as espoused in Burton
Malkiel's A
Random Walk Down Wall Street after reading this,
I don't know. |
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Marty Zweig's book, Winning
on Wall Street is the classic book on technical analysis that I refer
to constantly and reference frequently in the reports. |
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Martin Pring -- Market
Momentum is another classic text that is written clearly and precisely
and will provide a good grounding in the fundamental techniques for technical
analysis. |
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BACKTESTING METHODOLOGY
The GPS technique has been
refined using optimization of test parameters on past stock price data.
Such techniques
have had considerable criticism heaped on them -- and rightly so -- for being
used to "data mine" or "curve fit" past results. When one
tightly fits an equation to past data it almost always ceases to fit new
data quite quickly. To make my testing as robust as possible to markets as they
evolve in real time, I have used techniques documented in the excellent book
Design, Testing and Optimization of Treading Systems by Robert
Pardo. |
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There are other
cycles and seasonal trends of interest. Most of us have heard the dictum "sell
in May and go away." This came from the observation that markets have been
stronger in the period November through April, than during the rest of the year.
According to Les Masonson's excellent book All
About Market Timing,
which I highly recommend, an initial investment of $10,000 invested every May
through October produced a cumulative loss of $77 dollars between 1950 and 2001.
On the other hand, the same investment, invested every November through April
during those same years, yielded a gain of $457,103.
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Fred Goodman, CFP,
is a fee-only Certified Financial Planner based in Los Angeles.
To send Fred your questions or comments, click here: Fred@MarketMonograph.com.
E-mail sent to Fred may be edited for clarity and brevity and
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you request anonymity or specify not for publication. The charts
and commentary represent what Fred thinks about the market
and what he is thinking of doing for his own account and for
accounts he manages at the time of writing. Fred, his clients,
or his family may have positions or may make trades in securities
mentioned in these commentaries. There is no guarantee that
you will profit from trading as discussed herein. You may lose
money and Fred assumes no responsibility for what you do or do
not do with this information. Copyright©2001-2008 Fred Goodman.
All rights reserved. For information purposes only, offered
as a periodical of general circulation; not to be deemed to be
recommendations for buying or selling specific securities or
to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources
believed to be reliable, but no warranty is made as to accuracy.
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