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Fred Goodman: 2007
The Trend is your Friend, Except at the End
Monday, December 31, 2007
The NASDAQ is still positive, but the Short Trend Indicators for the S&P 500 and Dow are about to turn from neutral to negative.
Path of Least Resistance
Friday, December 28, 2007
Stock futures were down in overnight trading even before the Bhutto assassination.
All In
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Well, almost all in. We have room for one more trade in the GPS Portfolio.
New and Improved
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
We talk a bit more about the revisions that have been to the Discretionary GPS Portfolio.
Another Way of Looking at it
Monday, December 24, 2007
A useful way of studying Commitment of Traders reports is by calculating net positions as a percentage of open interest.
The Final Word
Friday, December 21, 2007
Today is an options expiration day and the last real working day of the year. Of more significance will be the release of consumer spending data before the open.
Ditto
Thursday, December 20, 2007
If the charts of the last two days were superimposed, few differences would be evident.
Better than Nothing
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Yesterday's afternoon recovery kicked off a 3-day VIX buy signal, an indicator with a decent, but not an exceptional track record.
Rally or Dally
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Will the market take a rest and then drop through support, or will we see a decent year-end rally?
Ghost of Christmas Past
Monday, December 17, 2007
Each year we try to guess what's ahead, based on the first few days of the season -- it will probably not surprise you to find out which year is the best match so far.
Not as Bad as it Looks
Friday, December 14, 2007
The approaching holiday means many traders will soon disappear, and the resulting low volume is likely to keep the market confined to its trading range until New Years.
Christmas Brake
Thursday, December 13, 2007
It's beginning to look like we may get a lump of coal in our stockings this year.
Paris Hilton
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Traders express disappointment with the size of the Fed's gift.
Low Volume Speaks Volumes
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
We can forgive yesterday's low volume because it was Monday, but trading must pick up this week if we're going to have a Christmas rally.
What's in a Name?
Monday, December 10, 2007
There's a difference between a triple top and a head & shoulders.
Picky, Picky, Picky
Friday, December 7, 2007
It's difficult to find fault with a 100 point S&P 500 advance in just eight sessions, but that is the fault, and now a pullback is inevitable.
They're Off
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Whether we break out and reach a new high, or form a right shoulder and a new low, remains to be seen.
Improving Odds
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
The gentle decline increased our odds of making money when the high is tested.
'Cause That's the Kinda Guy I'm
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Just biding my time.
Heads They Win, Tails We Lose
Monday, December 3, 2007
Why there's more risk than reward at this level.
A Mere Bag of Shells -- Ralph Kramden
Thursday, November 29, 2007
The S&P 500 gained over forty points yesterday -- there have now been two forty-plus gains and two forty-plus losses this month.
Hmmm, This Looks Familiar
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
In five sessions the Dow lost more than 200 points twice, and ended where it started -- to the penny.
Wait Watchers
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Until the NYSE New Highs and the RSI recover there is nothing to do but watch and wait.
Something Borrowed, Something Blue
Monday, November 26, 2007
I've borrowed from Friday's report and the indicators are blue.
It's Always darkest Before the Dawn
Friday, November 23, 2007
Trading ends three hours early today, and that's a relief.
Happy Thanksgiving
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Volume will be very low on Friday's shortened trading day, but only slightly below average today.
Going for the Extra Point
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Historically, Thanksgiving has returned 24 for 1.
Lock and Load
Monday, November 19, 2007
Conditions supportive of an intermeidate rally are developing.
Gaining Field Position
Friday, November 16, 2007
It didn't look like it yesterday, but some indicators have taken up strong positions from which buy signal are now likely.
The Balance of Evidence
Thursday, November 15, 2007
There are reasons to expect a test of the October high, and there are reasons to expect a test of the November low.
Turkey-Day
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
The Wednesday and Friday surrounding Thanksgiving have great records for market advances.
Average Performance
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
All three major indexes are very close to their 200-day moving averages, which makes a bounce very likely to happen soon.
On the One Hand...
Monday, November 12, 2007
and on the other.
Getting Back on the Horse
Friday, November 9, 2007
It's time to start looking for a new entry.
Stopped Out
Thursday, November 8, 2007
He who fights and runs away gets to fight another day.
The Market Swings Like a Pendulum Do
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
According to the Daily Rating we should prepare for more one-day reversals.
A Moment of Truth?
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
The S&P 500 is two points away from a Short Trend Indicator sell signal -- its first in three months.
Some Anniversary Present!
Monday, November 5, 2007
Thursday's sharp drop was probably related to the expected 1/4 point drop in interest and the unexpected toughening of the Fed's stance.
Rationalization
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Several economic reports released yesterday help support the Fed.'s decision to lower interest rates, even as the dollar disappears.
What Are the Odds?
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
70% in favor of a 25 basis point cut in the interest rate and 15% for 50 basis points. The remaining 15% odds favor no change at all.
Countdown
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
The Fed is expected to lower interest rates by 1/4% tomorrow at 2:15, but it could be more or less, and that can affect the markets.
Fed Up
Monday, October 29, 2007
The tone of the week will be set by the Fed announcement on Wednesday.
Full of sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing
Friday, October 26, 2007
Nothing to do as long as our stops are not hit.
Doctored Stoploss
Thursday, October 25, 2007
How I learned to stop worrying and love the volatility.
Pigs Get Slaughtered
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
We sold Amazon.com before it released its earnings.
Dodged a Bullet
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Well at least for the moment, and thanks to our stops we're still in there.
Zeppelins and Other Magic
Monday, October 22, 2007
An esoteric sell signal was given on Wednesday and confirmed on Thursday.
Trial by Fire
Friday, October 19, 2007
If we can get through today we'll be a lot stronger.
Why Price/Volume Charts Work
Thursday, October 18, 2007
A look under the hood of the clockwise buy loop.
Brace Yourself
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Housing starts, the CPI and a ton of earnings reports are due today.
Mixed Signs
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
The almost daily reversals are creating many positive and negative indicators.
All That Glitters
Monday, October 15, 2007
We take a close look at Gold's technical condition after its breakout to a new high.
Be Careful What You Wish For
Friday, October 12, 2007
Market volume finally expanded as I hoped it would, but prices went the wrong way.
Getting Trendy
Thursday, October 11, 2007
The almost daily market reversals may soon come to an end.
Looking for an Excuse
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
The market wanted to go up yesterday and used the FOMC minutes as an excuse.
The Calm Before the Storm
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Only on the third of July were fewer shares traded than were traded yesterday.
Merry Go Round
Monday, October 8, 2007
A falling Average Signature with rising stock prices suggests a period of market rotation.
Z Z Z Z Z
Friday, October 5, 2007
Perhaps earnings reports will wake traders up when they start appearing in earnest next week.
Breaking Records
Thursday, October 4, 2007
It's not much of a record, but if the S&P 500 closes down today it will only be the second time in seven weeks that it moved in the same direction for more than two days.
Alternating Currently
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
The market has been changing direction almost every day.
Going Wide at the First Turn
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
The S&P 500 is shy of a new high and may need a breather before getting through.
There Goes Swifty!
Monday, October 1, 2007
Commercial hedgers have halved their long positions in futures contracts.
Not With a Bang but a Whimper
Friday, September 27, 2007
September volume is down 10% from its 12-month average.
Let's See if Anyone Salutes
Thursday, September 27, 2007
The S&P 500 made a flag that projects to 1570.
More Speed Bumps
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
The market is showing strength while spinning its wheels.
Speed Bump
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Indicators suggest that a wait of at least a couple of days is likely before the rally resumes.
My Cap Runneth Over
Monday, September 24, 2007
Large cap stocks are outperforming small caps, and are likely to continue to do so.
Have You Stopped Beating Your Wife?
Friday, September 21, 2007
A similar question for the press would be: Are you lying or incompetent?
Another Positive Step
Thursday, September 20, 2007
The short Trend Indicator says a new uptrend has started.
Paying the Piper
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
There's a price to pay for instant gratification, but often there's more gratification first.
Tick Tock
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
There is no terror in a bang, only in the anticipation of it -- Alfred Hitchcock.
While You Wait
Monday, September 17, 2007
An FOMC announcement will be made tomorrow at 2:15 PM, but releases about the PPI, the State Street Confidence Index, a housing report and the NY Fed report will precede it.
It's a Lose--Lose--Lose Situation
Friday, September 14, 2007
I don't see the upside of the Bernanke dilemma.
Would You Mind if I Put You on Hold?
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Until the FOMC meeting Tuesday there is not likely to be much excitement in the market.
In a Rut
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
The S&P 500 spent two thirds of the last seven weeks between its 50- and 200-day moving averages.
Dueling Indicators
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Hopefully they will soon deliver us through the top of the trading range.
Throw the Book at Him
Monday, September 10, 2007
what a coincidence! Greenspan's memoirs will hit the street the day before the next FOMC meeting.
Indicator Rotation
Friday, September 7, 2007
The Average Signature turned down and the Short Trend Indicator is about to turn neutral.
Running in Reverse
Thursday, September 6, 2007
The S&P 500 changed direction 21 times in 30 days.
Head and Shoulders -- Reverse or Perverse?
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Caution must still be exercised.
Variations on a Theme
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Most of the indicators we follow are pointing upwards.
If it Quacks Like a Duck
Friday, August 31, 2007
The market is beginning to look like the bottom has been set.
It Did what?
Thursday, August 30, 2007
The Dow gained 1.9% after losing 2.1% the day before.
Pin the Tail on the Kangaroo
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
How to jump the gun and make a Kangaroo Tail Trade at a better price.
Split Decision
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
The NYSE New Highs Indicator gave a buy and the Average Signature turned down.
Hey, Wait for Me!!
Monday, August 27, 2007
The S&P 500 has retraced 49.6% of its loss from the high.
A Score
Friday, August 24, 2007
October 19 marks 20 years since "Black Monday."
Feelings, Wo-o-o, Feelings
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Yesterday's strength -- and an impressive move higher by eight indicators -- has not canceled my feeling that we're going to test the lows before we test the highs.
The Long and the Short of it
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
The long term looks promising, but there are a lot of short term obstacles to overcome.
On a Wing and a Prayer
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Both the stock market and my computing capacity -- I'm down to my last laptop, and I am not scheduled to return to LA for 10 days.
They Fed the Bull
Monday, August 20, 2007
Injections of liquidity by the Federal Reserve provided at least temporary relief.
Batten Down the Hatches
Friday, August 17, 2007
Option expiration days are always hectic, but this one will be more so.
Fundamentally Sound
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Several economic indicators looked good yesterday, but they are of little importance in an emotionally driven market.
Happy(?) Anniversary
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Yesterday's Short Trend Indicator sell signal ended a series of buys that started a year ago today.
Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
After gaining nearly 90 points, the Dow ended the day down three.
Art or Science?
Monday, August 13, 2007
How to sell is an art.
Consolidation?
Friday, August 10, 2007
Like calling a tsunami a "wave."
Size Matters
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Position size is one of the most important, controllable factors in trading.
It's Baaack
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
Market volatility reahed its highest level in 2-1/2 years.
No Crystal Ball?
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Well at least we can set up crystal clear trades.
Catch a Falling Knife
Monday, August 6, 2007
It's dangerous to attempt it, but with a definite exit plan the risk can be limited.
Good at Last, or too Good to Last?
Friday, August 3, 2007
Probably the later, since many indicators need more time to reverse direction.
Warp Speed Mr. Sulo
Thursday, August 2, 2007
The Dow gained more than 8 points a minute for a half hour yesterday.
What to Do When the Market Won't Follow Your Plan...
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Change your plan.
Deja Vu, All Over Again
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
The Average Signature made another low as the market rallied.
People Who Live in Glass Houses should Take Out Insurance
Monday, July 30, 2007
Or at least they should have stop losses.
Indicators Pulling in Opposite Directions are Clouding the Issue
Friday, July 27, 2007
But one thing is crystal clear -- we now have much less at stake.
What are the Odds
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Is August getting a bum rap
A Hard Fall Means a High Bounce...
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
...if you're made of the right material.
Beauty is Just Skin Deep
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Yesterday's rally looked good -- but only on the surface.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Monday, July 23, 2007
They're all represented.
It Just Keeps Going and Going...
Friday, July 20, 2007
And we keep raising our mental stops.
What, Me Worry?
Thursday, July 19, 2007
As I said yesterday, there's plenty to worry about, but the market continues to shrug it off.
Wall of Worry?
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
I hope it's true that the market climbs the wall, since there's plenty to worry about.
Give Me a Sign
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey was the first in a series of important economic indicators to be released this week, and it was good news.
Flipping off the Sentiment Indexes
Monday, July 16, 2007
The RBC CASH and Michigan Sentiment Indexes are almost as accurate market indicators as the flip of a coin.
Don't Rain On My Parade
Friday, July 13, 2007
Wouldn't think of it, but parades don't last forever.
Melange
Thursday, July 12, 2007
There are indicators now that will support any argument
Still Tugging
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
The Average Signature sell signal won the day, but the tug of war will continue until the Short Trend Indicator capitulates
Tug of war
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Important Indicators are pointing in opposite directions as the S&P 500 struggles with its narrowing chart pattern.
Who's Going to Win the Pennant?
Monday, July 9, 2007
The NASDAQ has already broken out to a new high, but both the Dow and S&P 500 are stuck in pennant chart patterns.
Sad Story -- Happy Ending
Friday, July 6, 2007
We must be affected by the housing slowdown and subprime foreclosures, but there are enough bright spots that we may just come through it unscathed.
Home Alone
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Weakness in the home sector may be serious, but we are being protected from its effects by many strong sectors. Voting Your Pocketbook
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
It is said that most voters select the candidate they think will benefit them financially -- let's see which party has the better record.
The Two Rs
Monday, July 2, 2007
Risk and Reward -- one's up and one's down.
If a Tree Falls in a Forest...
Friday, June 29, 2007
Today's release of Personal Consumption Expenditures may have little or no effect, since everyone may already be at the beach.
Close Enough, Give them the Cigar Anyway
Thursday, June 28, 2007
The VIX oversold indicator apparently came close enough to its buy signal trigger for the market to respond -- perhaps the trigger should be adjusted.
VIX Redux
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Our VIX Oversold Indicator is very close to one of its very rare buy signals.
No News is Good News
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Well if that's true we're in for it this week -- ten economic indicators will be released.
Chips
Monday, June 25, 2007
Do we take some chips off the table or let the chips fall where they may -- that's the question we'll tackle today.
All's Well That Ends Well
Friday, June 22, 2007
The Dow lost 82 points, gained 104, lost 73 and gained 125 before ending the day ahead by 56.
It's Different This Time
Thursday, June 21, 2007
This saying is rarely true when applied to traders' perceptions of the fundmentals, but it often has meaning with respect to technical indicators.
Dual Market
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Housing and autos have dramatically weakened in the last 12 months, but the rest of the economy was unaffected and it makes up over 90% of GDP.
You Know the Drill
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
When a low volume pullback follows a high volume rally, the Price/Volume Charts are placed at a crossroads.
Go Team!
Monday, June 18, 2007
High volume was an illusion due to the expiration of options, but the new NASDAQ high was real.
Along for the Ride
Friday, June 15, 2007
Volume is a bit low and gains are smaller than last week's losses, but there is no reason to look for an exit.
Clapping with One Hand
Thursday, June 14, 2007
While the majority of indicators made me expect yesterday's bounce, a few were pointing down and still are.
INTERESTing
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
After finally making it into positive territory just before 2 PM, and reaching its high for the day a few minutes later, interest rates moved up and the S&P 500 moved down.
Fractal -- A reduced-sized Copy of the Whole
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
The market reproduced the gyrations of the previous three sessions yesterday -- but in reverse.
Be it Ever So Humble...
Monday, June 11, 2007
Even with a broken hot water pipe in the backyard, it's a pleasure to be home.
Just the Facts, Ma'am
Friday, June 8, 2007
A quick review of the indicators.
Mixed Bag
Thursday, June 7, 2007
The Price/Volume Charts are telling conflicting stories.
No Comment
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Two charts appear below and the portfolios have been updated, but time constraints prevent me from elaborating.
Bull in a China Shop
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
In spite of the severe drubbing the Chinese market is receiving, other markets are holding up.
The Trend is Your Friend
Monday, June 4, 2007
Trends can be stubborn, so until there are real signs of deterioration it is best to go along with them.
Go With the Flow
Friday, June 1, 2007
No sense jumping in front of a freight train -- the indicators are positive and we're 80-90% invested, so lets enjoy it.
Wow!
Thursday, May 31, 2007
A rally is always impressive, but in the face of a 6.5% decline in the Chinese stock market it was awe inspiring.
A Step in the Right Direction
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
The Price/Volume Charts are on course to make buy loops, but stay vigilant since there is always a second possibility.
Brief Interlude or Reversal?
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Daily zigzags can be a sign of either.
Dark Clouds
Friday, May 25, 2007
It is difficult to ignore mounting evidence of problems ahead.
The Maestro Speaks
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Everything was doing fine until Greenspan badmouthed the Chinese stock market.
The Dog that Didn't Bark
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
The five days with the worst reputation have done little to impede the market's progress this month.
Better Late than Never
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
The NASDAQ finally joined the party and made a new seven year high.
Renewal
Monday, May 21, 2007
For several weeks the market slowly edged higher without exhibiting significant technical strength. However, indicators now appear to be joining the parade.
More of the Same
Friday, May 18, 2007
Large cap stocks continue to lead. They use any excuse to rally but display little technical strength.
Numbers Please
Thursday, May 17, 2007
The daily numbers have been updated along with the Portfolio files and ETFs.
A Shot of Adrenaline
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Hopeful CPI figures briefly revived the sagging market.
One Sick Puppy
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
The Dow provided window dressing, but the market was internally weak and does not look promising for the short term.
Leaving on a High Note
Monday, May 14, 2007
Friday's rally was music to my ears as I prepared to leave on vacation.
Remembrance of Things Past
Friday, May 11, 2007
The only difference is that last year Thursday fell on the 11th and this year it was on the 10th.
Sizing Up the Situation
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Determining the initial size of a position is just as important as the placement of a stop loss.
Stop the Music
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
The art and science of selecting stop losses.
Four Score and No Years Ago
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
The Dow made it 24 winners in 27 days, for the first time in 80 years.
One to Tie, Two to Win
Monday, May 7, 2007
The Dow advanced in 23 out of the last 26 days. Only 1927 had a better run, with 24 out of 27.
Bears 3, Bulls 22
Friday, May 4, 2007
The Dow advanced in 22 out of the last 25 days and gained 940 points. What effect does this have on today's outcome?
The May Effect
Thursday, May 3, 2007
It seems that the "January Effect" is just a special case of the "Every Month Effect."
Flight to Quality
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Large-Cap stocks have been outperforming for a while, but they seem to be gaining momentum at the expense of smaller stocks.
Loud and Clear, or at Least Loud
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
The market is shouting at us through a megaphone, but the Average Signature is saying something different.
While Strolling Through the Park One Day...
Monday, April 30, 2007
In the merry merry month of May, I was taken by surprise... well, you know the rest.
Twice Blessed
Friday, April 27, 2007
The Daily Rating will give another buy signal at the close Monday.
I Feel Good!
Thursday, April 26, 2007
James Brown must have been singing about the stock market.
Rest Stop
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
If given a choice, this is how I would like the market to act while recharging its batteries.
Reasonable Doubt
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
When indicators conflict, the odds always favor the existing trend. However, prudence requires that stop losses be in place and be rigidly observed.
The Big One
Monday, April 23, 2007
Just because the five declines since the market bottomed after the bubble were relatively small, doesn't mean that "the big one" is on its way.
Concurrence
Friday, April 20, 2007
We could see the Daily Rating, the Average Signature and the Price/Volume Charts join the Short Trend Indicator buy signal next week.
What are they Smoking?
Thursday, April 19, 2007
"Retail sales rose in March at the fast clip in three months," said the Associated Press, when in fact the rate of increase is the slowest in four years.
Revisionism
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Before attempting to understand economic reports, one must take into account revisions that have been made to previously released data.
New High or Too High
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
The S&P 500 made a new 6-1/2-year high on solid volume while the NASDAQ stopped 6 points short of a high, on lower volume.
What do you want to hear first, the Good News or the Better News
Monday, April 16, 2007
There's good news about inflation and the trade deficit, and the market is a sneeze away from a new high. Does that mean that stops are unnecessary?
Crosscurrents
Friday, April 13, 2007
There are positive and negative indicators sending the market back and forth in a narrow trading range.
Glub, Glub
Thursday, April 12, 2007
The market stopped treading water and submerged briefly yesterday. While volume was higher, there was no rout.
Treading Water
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Volume is drying up as the market moves higher. We are either resting, or about to.
Near-Time Weakness on its Way -- Doo-Da, Doo-Da
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Indicators are deserting as averages approach their highs. It looks like the market needs a rest before it can move higher.
Stay On Your Toes
Monday, April 9, 2007
The market is on its toes reaching for recent 7-year highs -- we have to stay on our toes in case it doesn't make it.
Spring Break
Thursday, April 5, 2007
Trading was subdued because of the holidays, and it is likely to remain that way until Monday or Tuesday.
A Sideways Glance
Wednesday, April 4, 2007
The market continues to trade sideways with an upward bias. The Dow did a little better than the S&P 500, and both outperformed the NASDAQ
Mixed Bag
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
There is an indicator to support any point of view in a market that is rattling around in a narrow trading range.
Up, Down and Sideways
Monday, April 2, 2007
Sideways markets can be further subdivided into sideways up and sideways down -- we're currently in a sideways up market.
Dipping a Toe
Friday, March 30, 2007
A positive one-day reversal raises the bullish probability, but does not guarantee it.
Hodgepodge
Thursday, March 29, 2007
A trading range still dominates the market as two important indicators move in opposite directions.
On the Other Hand
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
When the market is stuck in a trading range it is easy to make an argument in support of a breakout in either direction.
The Coin is in the Air
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Several indicators are positioned such that there is an equal probability of making a buy signal or a sell.
Amalgamation
Monday, March 26, 2007
There is no single indicator that always works, but it is often possible to improve results by combining indicators.
Testing the Water
Friday, March 23, 2007
Highs and lows are constantly tested to see just how far a move can go. We've made repeated probes of 1436 on the upside, and it's likely that we'll probe some recent lows as well.
As Clear as Mud
Thursday, March 22, 2007
At 2:14 PM the Dow was at 12289.70. A minute later the FOMC made a bland, innocuous statement and the Dow added 183 points in 45 minutes -- I wonder what would have happened if they had actually said something.
Repatriation
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
The State Street analysis of institutional holdings showed growing interest in North America at the expense of Europe and Asia.
Was it a Hit, or a Miss?
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
The market continued to follow its May agenda when a Summary Index buy signal was produced for the first time since June 27 -- two weeks after the May low.
The Latest Advances
Monday, March 19, 2007
There is nothing more basic than the cumulative advance/decline indicator, and yet it has some surprises to report.
Match Game
Friday, March 16, 2007
Yesterday's economic reports were not at odds with recent stock market weakness.
Near Misses
Thursday, March 15, 2007
On an intraday basis, the Short Trend Indicator and the VIX oversold indicator made signals in opposite directions, and both canceled them by the end of the session.
Now and Then
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
The decline is beginning to look a lot like May, and that's a lot better than some of the alternatives.
When in Doubt, Stay Out.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
If you are looking for a quick and dirty rule this is it. However, if you have the time and inclination there are more productive approaches.
Suspense
Monday, March 12, 2007
The market is making very slow progress, but difficult tests lie directly ahead.
Bullseye
Friday, March 9, 2007
KL A-Tencor hit its target.
The Die is Cast
Thursday, March 8, 2007
We added to our position in QQQQ and have mental stops in place for it and for DIA.
Kangaroo Tail
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
A Chart pattern described by Alexander Elder has provided us with well defined buy and stop loss prices.
This May Remind You
Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Last May's chart of QQQQ should teach us patience now.
Stop It!
Monday, March 5, 2007
It's fine to try to "catch a falling knife" by buying into a decline, but only if you select a stop loss BEFORE making the trade, and if you stick to it no matter what.
Records are Made to be Broken
Friday, March 2, 2007
On tuesday the ARMS Index reached 15.8, 50% higher than at any time in the last ten years.
Balancing Act
Thursday, March 1, 2007
There are enough indicators to support both the bulls and the bears.
Quiver or Quake
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Rain on a tin roof makes a lot of noise, but it doesn't make it wetter than when it falls on a wooden roof.
Confluence
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Indicators are pulling in different directions this week, but they are likely to pull together next week.
Shakespeare Had it Wrong
Monday, February 26, 2007
He should have asked, "What's in a Number?"
Looking at the Market Weakly
Friday, February 23, 2007
Sometimes you can get a better idea of where the market is going by stepping back. Today we'll compare SPY on both daily and weekly charts.
It's an Ill Wind that Blows No Good
Thursday, February 22, 2007
The increase in the CPI handed gold its biggest daily gain in eight months.
A Great Street
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
The State Street confidence Index moved higher due to increased buying of North American Stocks.
Sentiment Journey
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Trend-following indicators like the Short Trend Indicator are bullish, oscillators that identify turning points are mostly neutral and some sentiment indicators are negative.
As You Were
Friday, February 16, 2007
There was nothing in the five economic reports released yesterday that should disturb the market, and Bernanke did no harm either.
The Significant Seven
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Seven economic indicators will be released between today and tomorrow, and Bernanke will continue to speak to the Senate Banking Committee -- lots can happen.
This Could Be The Start of Something Big
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Several indicators are on the verge of joining the Daily Rating in its buy signal.
Gentlemen, Start Your Engines
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
The Daily Rating has been on a sell since the first of the month, but it turns to buy at the close today.
Whac-A-Bear
Monday, February 12, 2007
The market ended on an up note on each of the last seven days in spite of losses during the session -- the question is "Will the bulls be able to continue pulling it off?"
Stable Instability
Friday, February 9, 2007
That's how a speaker described our relationship with China, and it applies to the stock market as well.
Cupid May Help
Thursday, February 8, 2007
The Daily Rating will return to the buy side on Valentines day.
No Means No
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
True enough, but sometimes when the market says "no" to the bears, it's saying "yes" to the bulls.
Stacked Deck
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
There are many negative indicators, but the Short Trend Indicator is still trump.
Potpourri
Monday, February 5, 2007
Earnings estimates have brightened while employment prospects have dimmed.
Hooray!
Friday, February 2, 2007
The S&P 500 reached a 6-year high and kicked off a new Short Trend Indicator buy signal. However, the very short term Daily Rating is now on a sell.
The Best of All Possible Worlds -- Almost
Thursday, February 1, 2007
The Dow closed within 0.07 points of a new 6-year high while other indices missed their highs by more.
Still Waiting
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
We won't have to wait much longer -- there will be a flurry of economic indicators throughout the day.
Waiting for Goodnews
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
The news starts slowly today, but economic indicators to be released tomorrow and Thursday are important enough to move the market out of its doldrums.
Code Blue
Monday, January 29, 2007
Critical economic reports to be released before the open on Wednesday and Thursday may stimulate a breakout from the trading range.
Musical Chairs
Friday, January 26, 2007
ETFs -- where will they be when the music stops?
Two Out of Three
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Two of our three primary low-volatility indicators are on buy signals, and the third may follow in a few days.
Testing, Testing
Wednesday, January 24, 2007
At one point on Monday the Dow was behind by more than 100 points, and yet yesterday it came within 30 points of a new all-time high -- I expect we'll see more testing of the trading range before a breakout.
Bad Hair Day
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
The market was weak yesterday, but the 22 point S&P 500 trading range is still intact.
Home, Home in the Range
Monday, January 22, 2007
The market is in a trading range. The question is whether it is making a top before a decline or just resting after its big advance and preparing for another
You Say Tomato, I Say Tomahto
Friday, January 19, 2007
When economic indicators were negative last summer and fall, technical indicators were positive, now the situation is reversed.
Roto Reuters
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Why Does Reuters tell us the economy is in the sewer?
Information Overload
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Housing Index, Producer Price Index, Industrial Production, CPI, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Report and Consumer Sentiment -- just a few of the reports due this week.
A Taxing Situation
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
US Treasury receipts are at their highest level in history. So why all this talk about raising taxes? Could it be because Congress has never reduced spending and is about to increase it more rapidly?
It's been a Great Run
Friday, January 12, 2007
The five month-long buy signal by the short Trend Indicator ended yesterday. However, there has not been a sell signal, and as a matter of fact it is closer to a new buy than it is to a sell.
Surprise, Surprise
Thursday, January 11, 2007
The US Trade gap "surprisingly" narrowed to $58.2 billion in November. How come the media is always surprised when anything good happens?
The Stopped Calendar
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
They say a stopped clock is at least right twice a day, but how about a stopped calendar? This may be Barron's Alan Abelson's brief moment in the sun.
Axes to Grind
Tuesday, January 9, 2007
It's hard enough trying to figure out what the myriad of economic indicators are telling us, but it's impossible if one relies on the politically motivated.
If It Moves Salute It
Monday, January 8, 2007
The NASDAQ backed away from recent highs forming the upper border of its flag pattern. While breakouts from flags have a long record of kicking off major rallies, failures have been damaging.
Sleeping Beauty
Friday, January 5, 2007
After resting, following its new high reached on November 22, the NASDAQ made a good showing for itself and closed within 12 points of that level.
The Institute for Sadism and Masochism
Thursday, January 4, 2007
The report released at 10 AM by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) drove the market up over 100 points just as it drove it down that much a month ago.
The Ghost of Christmas Past
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
The holiday rally has often ended with the first week of the New Year.
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