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Fred Goodman: 2006
The U.S. Media
Friday, December 29, 2006
Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see. -- Benjamin Franklin.
The Pessimist
Thursday, December 28, 2006
One who, when he has the choice of two evils, chooses both. -- Oscar Wilde.
Market Neutral
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality...-- Dante.
Dr. Strangelove
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Correction.
Agenda Gap
Friday, December 22, 2006
One has to work hard to separate truth from fiction when reading economic news.
Don't Mess With Mister In-Between
Thursday, December 21, 2006
There are both positive and negative technical indicators laboring side by side, and it looks like we may accentuate the positive for the holidays.
And The Winner Is...
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
When economic and technical indicators are at odds, technical indicators usually win in the short term. However, there is a lot going on beneath the surface.
Underachiever
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
The NASDAQ is the only one of the three major indices that has not made a new high this month. Now, it is poised to lead the others lower.
Clear as Mud
Monday, December 18, 2006
Inflation is coming under control, but is still of concern. It depends on whether you are ignoring food and energy or not.
Now That Was More Like It
Friday, December 15, 2006
Our patience during the two-week stall paid off yesterday as two out of the three major indices reached new highs.
What Goes Up Must Come Down
Thursday, December 14, 2006
That's true, but in the stock market, what doesn't go up often comes down too.
'Tis the Seasonality
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
The Daily Rating, which is based on the relation between the day-of-the-week and the day-of-the-month, is calling for five positive days. However, most other indicators are neutral.
No News is Good News
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
A quiet day that was expected to be negative could kick off a positive week.
Follow the Money
Monday, December11, 2006
The combination of strong employment data and jawboning -- by Treasury Secretary Paulson -- pushed the Dollar Index higher and intensified the weakness in gold.
Z Z Z Z Z Z Z
Friday, December 8, 2006
The market continued on a break from its long rally, and while it did pull back a bit, it was not convincing.
Interesting
Thursday, December 7, 2006
The interest rate on the 30-year home loan fell to 5.98% last week. Could this mean that the 15-month decline in housing will soon reach bottom?
Fundamental Whipsaw
Wednesday, December 6, 2006
Just as technical indicators can make head feints, so too can economic indicators.
Fresh as a Daisy
Tuesday, December 5, 2006
The August rally was granted a new lease on life yesterday when the S&P 500 reached another new high.
The Importance of Seeing Earnings
Monday, December 4, 2006
With apologies to Oscar Wilde. The estimates for S&P 500 earnings were refreshed at the end of November and show some troubling signs.
A Lot More of the Same
December 1, 2006
Stocks continued to bounce around in a narrow trading range, but volume suddenly swelled.
Home Is Where the Heart Is
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Just as the decline in housing led the economy down, so too can it lead it back up.
If You don't Like the News, Wait a Few Minutes
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Mark Twain said it about the weather, but it applies well to the 26 economic reports that are being released this week. So far they've been good, bad and indifferent.
Fa La La La La, La La La La
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
'Tis the season to be jolly? Not so fast -- more than one third of the last 30 Decembers were losers, and six had losses between 3 and 7%.
Oh, its a Long, Long While from May to December...
Monday, November 27, 2006
The market made a high in May after a sustained rally, and then gave back 8.3% in 30 days. What are the similarities and differences between now and then?
Risk and Return
Friday, November 24, 2006
Important indicators are approaching highs that have preceded extended rallies in the past, but there is a 3% risk that must be accepted if you wish to take advantage of the opportunity.
Playing Hooky
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
The odds favor the upside today even though traders will start leaving at lunchtime, and many will not return until Monday.
Talking Turkey
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
After three weak days, the Daily Rating will turn up tomorrow in time for Thanksgiving
Speaking of the House
Monday, November 20, 2006
The housing market looks terrible, almost as bad as it did in 1990, but there is an important difference.
Gimme a Break
Friday, November 17, 2006
The market appears ready to take a break, but it should revive as we get closer to Thanksgiving.
Taking Inventory
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Total Business Sales declined and Inventories grew last month, but this has happened many times before with little effect on the market.
I've Got Good News and Bad News
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
The Producer Price Index fell sharply when it was expected to rise -- that's the good news -- but Retail Sales also declined.
I Can Get It for You Retail
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
The very important Retail Sales report will be released before the open today and should have an effect on trading
That Giant Sucking Sound
Monday, November 13, 2006
The effect of outsourcing on the Indian economy makes it difficult to resist making at least a modest investment.
What's in a Name
Friday, November 10, 2006
Quite a bit actually, the S&P 500 Oscillator was misnamed, it's not an oscillator. Henceforth we'll refer to it as the Short Trend Indicator.
Business as Usual
Thursday, November 9, 2006
The market opened lower, but it shook off its election worries in just a few hours.
Stop Loss
Wednesday, November 8, 2006
The S&P 500 Oscillator buy signal will end if the index closes below 1362 in the next two weeks.
Location, Location, Location
Tuesday, November 7, 2006
For real estate maybe, but for the stock market its Earnings, Earnings, Earnings.
The Chicken or the Egg
Monday, November 6, 2006
Most economic indicators lag the stock market, but there are a few that lead -- we'll look at one today.
It's Embarrassing
Friday, November 3, 2006
Reporting of economic news is almost as misleading as political reporting.
Uh-Oh
Thursday, November 2, 2006
News Item: "Fund ownership nears pre-2001 levels."
Silence is Golden
Wednesday, November 1, 2006
Gold quietly sneaked back above 600 and managed to close there.
Rotten to the Core
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
There are many ways of looking at the rate of inflation, and most of them agree that it has not stopped rising.
A Delicate Balance
Monday, October 30, 2006
It's been said that politicians are like acrobats, they maintain balance by saying one thing and doing another.
Lies, Damned Lies and Economic Indicators
Friday, October 27, 2006
It may not be malicious, but reports on economic indicators can be misleading.
Vertigo
Thursday, October 26, 2006
Market overextension is being relieved by sector rotation
You Pays your Money and you Takes your Chances
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
The Daily Rating, the Relative Strength Indicator, the Average Signature and the Summary Index are pulling in different directions.
Making Hay while the Sun Shines
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
As long as the Summary index remains above its sell trigger, there is no reason not to enjoy the rally.
Political Correctness
Monday, October 23, 2006
Investment results during the next few weeks may depend upon being on the correct side of the election.
Hooray!
Friday, October 20, 2006
The Dow made history yesterday when it closed above 12000.
Close Only Counts in Horseshoes
Thursday, October 19, 2006
The Dow crossed 12000 yesterday -- twice. Four times if you count both the comings and the goings.
True Confessions
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
There is a parallel between studying statistics and studying economic indicators.
It's High Time
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Indicators and indices are either already in, or very close to entering uncharted territory.
View from the Top
Monday, October 16, 2006
The Summary Index is within days of its all-time high.
Keynesian Analysis
Friday, October 13, 2006
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
The Plane Truth
Thursday, October 12, 2006
The Dow was down over 35 points when the plane struck in New York. An additional 30 points were lost and quickly regained, revealing considerable underlying strength.
Taking a Breather
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
With a Negative Daily Rating and a new Average Signature sell signal, we are liquidating our ETF positions until indicators improve.
Daily Double
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
The Daily Rating is calling for two down days following a gain today.
Day Planner
Monday, October 9, 2006
A daily rating based on the day-of-the-week and the day-of-the-month will be unveiled this week.
Mary, Mary,
October 6, 2006
The AAII membership has grown worried, should we take the contrary view?
If You Can't Beat 'Em
Thursday, October 5, 2006
Based on a buy signal by the Average Signature we'll stick one foot in.
What's Wrong with this Picture?
Wednesday, October 4, 2006
The Dow reached an historic intraday high and closed at its highest level in history, but a few things are out of place.
In the Balance
Tuesday, October 3, 2006
The market appears to be recharging its batteries for another assault on the record highs.
The Quality of the Breakout Must not be Strained
Monday, October 2, 2006
With apologies to William Shakespeare. How far the Dow goes after the breakout will depend on the ease with which it surpasses the 2000 high and on its volume.
Running on Fumes
Friday, September 29, 2006
Volume's down, the Average Signature is dragging, the RSI is under pressure, the Price/Volume Charts are poised for sell signals, and worst of all its Friday.
Today's the Day
Thursday, September 28, 2006
Well it may be the day the Dow reaches an all-time high, but that's not what I meant. In the last three years, 5-day investments started on the 28th of the month outperformed any other 5-day period.
Election Update
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
It's almost three years since we took an in-depth look at the influence that the election cycle, the season and the day of the month have on the market. We'll bring you up-to-date in today's and tomorrow's reports.
Double Your Pleasure
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
The S&P 500 closed 0.61 points above its May high to reach a new 5-1/2 year peak. Is this the start of something big, or will it prove to be a double top?
Fall's Fall
Monday, September 25, 2006
While it is taken as truth that September and October are the blackest months, market lows from which future rallies get started are often established then.
A Good Excuse
Friday, September 22, 2006
A technically weak market will grab at any straw to justify its decline -- yesterday it was the Philly Fed Survey.
New High or not New High, that is the Question
Thursday, September 21, 2006
The S&P 500 made a new intraday high, but couldn't hold it and closed below its 5-year mark at 1325.76.
Longing to Short
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Selling short has always been difficult -- until now.
Spectator Sport
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
The Average Signature turned down, but with the Trend Indicator in an Uptrend state we'll wait for the next buy signal before getting further involved.
Taking the Plunge
Monday, September 18, 2006
The Average Signature added three points Friday and will turn down today unless the market moves sharply higher, and then it will turn down tomorrow anyway.
I Walk the Line
Friday, September 15, 2006
Like using a net under a tightrope, there's a good reason for holding a lot of cash.
The 3 Rules of Mountaineering
Thursday, September 14, 2006
"It's always further than it looks. It's always taller than it looks. And it's always harder than it looks."
Out of Phase
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
While it is clear that the indicator based on the average signature is in phase with market, the Summary Index is not. We introduce a modified strategy today to take advantage of the situation.
Spunky
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Like the Energizer Bunny, the market keeps on resisting the decline that the indicators are calling for.
Net!
Monday, September 11, 2006
The market reminds me of a tennis ball that strikes the net, and for a moment it is unclear on which side it will fall.
All That Glitters
Friday, September 8, 2006
Gold reversed field and plunged through its uptrend line to resume its early summer decline.
The Nays Have it
Thursday, September 7, 2006
Three sell signals -- added to the Summary Index sell signal -- finally overpowered the market, at least for a day.
As Good as Gold
Wednesday, September 6, 2006
The odds are good that gold will rally from here.
What's Hot and What's Not
Tuesday, September 5, 2006
Techniques for trading range markets differ from those for trending markets.
30 Days Hath September
Friday, September 1, 2006
We may look back and wish there were fewer days.
Just the Facts Ma'am
Thursday, August 31, 2006
A quick look at yesterday's numbers.
Show and Tell
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
A quick look at a lot of charts.
In Real Time
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
The first buy signal under the 450/650 model for the Average Signature occurred yesterday.
A Joint Effort
Monday, August 28, 2006
A look at the relationship between the Summary Index and the average Signature.
A Signature Event
Friday, August 25, 2006
The indicator developed from the average Signature of 2000 stocks was one year old this month. Its record may surprise you.
Will the Last Trader Leaving Please Turn Out the Lights
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Weekly trading volume is approaching a 10-year low.
Variations on a Theme
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
All the Price/Volume Charts are in sync.
Blue Monday
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
The low-volume decline following the big gain last week was no surprise, but other factors may be at play.
That Was The Week That Was
Monday, August 21, 2006
And this week is the last normal trading week of summer -- it is likely to be pivotal
Appearances are Deceiving
Friday, August 18, 2006
Even with the big price moves of the last two weeks, market volatiilty remains at a decade low
Taking Stock
Thursday, August 17, 2006
A review of where we are and where we're headed.
Res Ipsa Loquitur
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
"The thing speaks for itself."
Headline -- Stocks Gain 10 Points in Active Trading
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
New York Times, page 37 -- The Dow lost 104 of its 114 point gain between 12:30 and the close.
Gone fishing
Monday, August 14, 2006
Today is the first day of my vacation, so I will be briefer than usual.
Over the Hill
Friday, August 11, 2006
In spite of the market's remarkable resilience in the face of thwarted terrorism, the odds are against significant gains. Perhaps there will be one last hurrah before the Summary Index turns down.
CATastrophe
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Caterpillar and UTX were responsible for over 30% of the 97 points lost by the Dow yesterday, and its decline proved to be too much for the NASDAQ, which was ahead 37 points at noon.
Mixed Message
Wednesday, August 9, 2006
Inflation pressures are moderating but risks remain, so we won't raise rates again unless we raise them -- FOMC.
Hurry Up and Wait
Tuesday, August 8, 2006
The FOMC meets today, but the market started waiting yesterday -- volume was the smallest in a month. Does it really matter what Bernanke says?
Sisyphus
Monday, August 7, 2006
Two steps forward and two steps back will not help us clear the hurdle presented by the recent highs.
Tipping Point?
Friday, August 4, 2006
It has been almost three weeks since a low was made and eight weeks since THE low was made, but we still have not managed much of a breakout.
Loop the Loop
Thursday, August 3, 2006
Price/Volume buy loops were completed by the Dow and S&P 500, and the NASDAQ can do it today.
Down the Stretch
Wednesday, August 2, 2006
The markets were down all day, but moved sharply higher near the finish. The strong close suggests that the period including the first five days of the month may prove to be profitable, after a shaky start.
Wishy-washy
Tuesday, August 1, 2006
The market was down, but advances managed to beat declines to keep the A/D ratio buy signal going.
The Long and the Short of it
Monday, July 31, 2006
Head and shoulders breakouts by both the Dow and the S&P 500 were accompanied by a rare advance/decline buy signal bonus.
Still Waters
Friday, July 28, 2006
While the indices look as if nothing happened in my absence, some stocks told a different story.
Paul Anka Said it Best -- "Put Your Head On My Shoulders."
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
The S&P 500 is toying with the reverse head and shoulders pattern, it came within 1-1/2 points of the neckline at yesterday's high.
Voodoo
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
It is almost as if our modification of the rules for the Summary Index reversed the market, but we'll wait for completion of the head and shoulders patterns before buying.
Summary Index -- Use it or Lose it?
Monday, July 24, 2006
The Summary Index has not been performing as well lately as it has in the past. We discuss why, and how to improve the results.
Let's You and Him Fight
Friday, July 21, 2006
Being almost on the sidelines and far from the daily clash of bulls and bears is a pleasant interlude.
At the Boiling Point
Thursday, July 20, 2006
The Dow gained 212 points when Bernanke hinted that inflation is coming under control.
Relief Rally?
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Well it may have been a relief, but it wasn't much of a rally.
Overwrought, but not Oversold
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Many indicators are at their extremes or close to them, but the sharp drop so commonly seen at the end of a slide has not yet presented itself.
Swing Low
Monday, July 17, 2006
The escalation of political tensions -- coming just as the technical condition of the market worsened -- has amplified the decline.
The Worm has Turned
Friday, July 14, 2006
Ten indicators turned down to produce a Quick Summary Index sell signal.
Uncle
Thursday, July 13, 2006
The Summary Index is about to turn down, and a Quick Summary Index sell signal is just three negative indicators away
Great Save!
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Suprising strength in the middle of the day exposed hidden technical strength.
Nothing Ventured Nothing Gained
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
Or is it, too much ventured for too little potential gain?
Bullish on Balance
Monday, July 10, 2006
While there are more positives than negatives, this is no runaway bull market
Up in Smoke
Friday, July 7, 2006
The Dow moved higher on the back of the Marlboro Man.
The Holiday Is Ended (but the Fireworks Linger On)
Thursday, July 6, 2006
Once again, solid gains were produced during the Fourth of July holiday, but a sharp slide marred the result.
Three... Extremes
Wednesday, July 5, 2006
Indicators are racing higher and will profit from a brief rest.
Shhhhh, Markets are Sleeping
Monday, July 3, 2006
With the market closing at 1 PM instead of 4 PM today, and most traders away for the holiday, not much is likely to happen.
Are We Having Fun Yet?
Friday, June 30, 2006
I know I am, Yesterday's gain by the S&P 500 was its biggest in over three years
Back on Track
Thursday, June 29, 2006
The 200-day moving average recovered from its one-day decline.
The Market is Below Average
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
The 200-day moving average turned down yesterday, but all is not yet lost.
Let the Games Begin
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
The pre-holiday period started on cue with gently advancing prices on low volume.
In a Holiday Mood
Monday, June 26, 2006
We're likely to have low volume and higher prices through the holiday.
The Waiting Game
Friday, June 23, 2006
The market is still oversold, but many indicators have already turned up, or are about to -- it's just a matter of time.
The Harder they Fall
Thursday, June 22, 2006
The leading stocks since the June 13 low were those that fell the furthest during the decline.
Taking the Fourth
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Will the peace and quiet be broken by annual fireworks?
Twins
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
There are many similarities between the bottoming process last October and what we're going through now -- but there are differences too.
Bewitched
Monday, June 19, 2006
Quadruple witching Friday camouflaged market activity, and summer-low volume may continue the process.
V for VIXtory
Friday, June 16, 2006
The VIX oversold indicator ushered in a 300-point, two-day rally.
Push, Pull, Old VIX! change Direction that Quick
Thursday, June 15, 2006
The VIX oversold indicator showed the way, but how long will it last.
15 Minutes of Fame
Wednesday, June 14, 2006
The big rally at the end of the day lasted a quarter of an hour.
Going to Extremes
Tuesday, June 13, 2006
You can't have an important market bottom without first having a major market decline.
Investing for Dummies
Monday, June 12, 2006
All you'll ever need to succeed in the stock market.
One-Day Reversal
Friday, June 9, 2006
By definition: The open is below the previous close, the low is lower than the previous low and the close is up on heavy volume.
Technically the Market is Fundamentally Strong
Thursday, June 8, 2006
Or is it: Fundamentally the Market is Technically Weak?
All's Well that Ends Well
Wednesday, June 7, 2006
While it looked for most of the day as if the market were headed for a new low, the Governor called 30 minutes before the close.
Why Don't I Feel Refreshed?
Tuesday, June 6, 2006
The expected pause felt more like paws, as the bear came roaring back.
The Pause That Refreshes
Monday, June 5, 2006
Higher prices are likely after a short Signature break.
"V" Stands for Very Rare
Friday, June 2, 2006
I do not remember ever seeing a V-shaped decline and recovery -- a W perhaps, but never a V.
The Market Spoke Volumes
Thursday, June 1, 2006
The final 30-minute spurt of over 50 Dow points was accompanied by more than twice the average volume for the period.
Reaching for a Bottom
Wednesday, May 31, 2006
The low volume makes it unlikely that a bottom was established yesterday, more probes are likely.
It's a Matter of Choice
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
How aggressively you pursue the oversold rally depends upon your position in the investment continuum and on your acceptance of risk.
Plop, Plop, Fizz, Fizz
Friday, May 26, 2006
As the jingle goes... "Oh What a Relief it is."
A Backward Glance
Thursday, May 25, 2006
We take a look at past declines to better estimate what lies ahead.
A Meeting of the Signs
Wednesday, May 24, 2006
Many bottom indicators are rapidly converging as the market becomes more and more oversold.
Round and Round She Goes
Tuesday, May 23, 2006
Market rotation allows all sectors to participate in the decline, none is spared.
Pop Quiz
Monday, May 22, 2006
Lesson learned at the Market Technicians Association meeting.
Like a Knife Through Butter
Friday, May 19, 2006
The NASDAQ has fallen eight times in a row and has ignored all of the logical stopping points, but bounce it will, and it won't be long in coming.
Full Fury
Thursday, May 18, 2006
After Tuesday's lull, the decline started again in earnest and took out several support levels without a pause.
Eyeing the Storm
Wednesday, May 17, 2006
The relative calm yesterday is likely to be brief, but it was certainly welcome.
Sowing the Seeds of its Own Reversal
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
While the number of negative indicators grew to 12, the number of positive indicators shrank to 2. This means that the new sell signal can be easily reversed.
We'll Make it Up On Volume
Monday, May 15, 2006
A bleak picture was improved somewhat by reduced volume and by the low level reached by the average signature.
Sell in May and Go Away? -- Redux
Friday, May 12, 2006
It looked like a lot of investors got that message at the same time yesterday.
Short Circuit
Thursday, May 11, 2006
Low volatility strikes again making it possible for yet another reversal by the Quick Summary Index.
Market Leadership
Wednesday, May 10, 2006
Personally, I like two types of stocks -- domestic and foreign. -- with apologies to Mae West
Easy Answers
Tuesday, May 9, 2006
Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers -- Henry Louis Mencken
We Got Liftoff
Monday, May 8, 2006
Well it depends where you look, but the dow certainly appears to have made a successful launch.
Patience is a Virtue
Friday, May 5, 2006
While fretting about the constant ups and downs of the market as it struggles to its next new high, it's instructive to look back at how far it has come.
Watching Grass Grow
Thursday, May 4, 2006
The market is moving higher, but it is even less exciting than watching paint dry.
Let Me Count the Ways
Wednesday, May 3, 2006
Many little positive may work together to propel the market quietly higher in the absence of a major catalyst
Capiche?
Tuesday, May 2, 2006
No one ever understood Alan Greenspan and we got along just fine, how come it's now important to understand a Fed Chairman?
Trifecta
Monday, May 1, 2006
The S&P 500 has been horsing around 1311 for four weeks -- is this the week it will join the other indices and reach a new closing high?
The Music Goes 'Round and Around...
Friday, April 28, 2006
Will the latest round of market rotation take hold, or is this just another head fake by the small-cap stocks?
Like a Coin On Its Edge
Thursday, April 27, 2006
Alternating ups and downs produce confused indicators, and low volatility produces alternating ups and downs.
Sell in May and Go Away?
Wednesday, April 26, 2006
A lot of charts are pointing down, but they are all short term charts -- maybe we should not go too far away.
Bang or Whimper?
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Narrow trading ranges have a habit of ending with a bang, but with so many neutral indicators, we may just get more of the same.
Missed It By That Much!
Monday, April 24, 2006
The S&P 500 is stuck in a tiny trading range just below the high it reached early this month -- let's wait for it.
Sign Here
Friday, April 21, 2006
The average signature of 2000 stocks reveals that we're not likely to go higher without a rest.
Not So Fast
Thursday, April 20, 2006
Two impressive rallies have not yet produced a Quick Summary Index buy signal
From Lurking to Flaunting
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
After a day of hidden strength the market went to a day of raw power.
Occult Energy
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
In defiance of sharply lower indices and continued low volume, hidden strength was lurking.
Rip Van Winkle Market
Monday, April 17, 2006
The low volatility in general and the holiday in particular have combined to slow things down to a crawl.
Gone Fishing
Thursday, April 13, 2006
Volume disappeared yesterday -- imagine how low it will be today before the Good Friday Holiday -- and Mondays are light anyway.
Short Signal, Maybe Very Short
Wednesday, April 12, 2006
The brand new sell signal can quickly be reversed since there are only three positive indicators left.
Calm Before the Storm?
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
Whether low volume is a sign that traders are temporarily exhausted after the long climb, or that they just can't find any more buyers, will soon become obvious.
The Invisible Trend
Monday, April 10, 2006
Even though the market lacks volatility and the trend is frequently interrupted, there has been a steady advance for three years.
I
Think I Can, I Think I Can
April
7, 2006, 12:10 am
The S&P 500 will confirm its Long Term Price/Volume Chart buy
signal today even if it falls a bit.
Fake
Out or Breakout?
April
6, 2006, before 12:00 am
The new S&P 500 high looks very promising, but we need another
1.27 points to make it a full 5-year breakout.
Count
Your Blessings
April 5, 2006, before
12:00 am
The dull, narrow trading range hasn't been all bad -- it certainly
beats the alternative.
Just
Another Day in the Trending Range Market
April 4, 2006, before
12:00 am
The opening rally made the Price/Volume Chart sell signals go away,
but they're baack.
Too
Good to be True
April 3, 2006, before
12:00 am
S&P 500 earnings have grown 22%
in the last 12 months, can we expect it to continue?
"When You Come to a Fork in the Road, Take It"
March 31, 2006, 8:57 am
The
Price/Volume charts are poised for major moves -- in both directions.
Overdone? Well Done!
March 30, 2006,
2:33 am
Stocks recovered from their FOMC blues
almost immediately.
Just a Minor Setback
March 29, 2006,
8:53 am
The non-surprise from the FOMC shouldn't
hold stocks back from new highs.
Big Ben Tolls at 2:15
March 28, 2006,
8:37 am
Waiting for Bernanke's first FOMC meeting
is another reason for the trading range to linger.
Signature of Success
March 27, 2006, before
12:00 am
This unvolatile market is hard to play, but
a key indicator has convinced Fred to up his stock exposure.
Endless Trendless
March 24, 2006, 8:00 am
What do you do in a market that just
drifts? At least it's drifting higher.
It Costs Nothing To
Wait
March 23, 2006, 8:46 am
With T-bills yielding over 4.5% and stocks
drifting, Fred is comfortable staying uncommitted.
No Whites of Their
Eyes
March 22, 2006, 5:39 am
Fred is glad he hasn't done any buying, as
the trading range extends itself.
Low Volume Turning
Point?
March 21, 2006, 8:44 am
Dull markets like yesterday's can be the
launching pad for big moves.
Wet Blanket
March 20, 2006, 1:19 am
Six up days in a row -- but we're still in
a tricky trading range market.
No Trend in Sight
March 17, 2006, 6:56 am
The action's been bullish, but without
volatility, a true trend can't get started.
Alignment at Last
March 16, 2006, 12:00 am
Everything's in gear to the upside -- but
in our low-volatility market, beware of a whipsaw.
Great Show -- But
"Show Me"
March 15, 2006, 6:44 am
Fred doesn't think yesterday's big day was
a definitive upside breakout.
That was Then, This
is Now
March 14, 2006, 6:48 am
Are the indicators telling us that we're at
a major top, like in 2000?
The Jury's Still Out
March 13, 2006, before
12:00 am
And if stocks rise without a washout first,
it's unlikely to be a major move.
Narrowest in a Dozen
Years
March 10, 2006, 8:56 am
You have to go back to 1994 to find a
trading range as tight as this one.
Another Big Day
March 9, 2006, 8:52 am
Or rather another day for big stocks, which
continue to outperform small cap.
Fat Tails
March 8, 2006, 9:03 am
Stocks are riskier than the mathematical
models predict -- can that be used to predict the market?
Oh, Misbehave!
March 7, 2006, 9:03 am
Fred starts to look at the mathematics of
market momentum -- to understand why stocks today are so boringly well
behaved.
Top Tip
March 6, 2006, before
12:00 am
Fred thinks the market is telling him "top"
-- and it's not whispering.
Sell a Dull Market
Short?
March 3, 2006, 8:45 am
Surprisingly, some history shows that
trendless markets can lead to short-term declines.
Short-term Trend
Trading? What Trend?
March 2, 2006, 8:42 am
Sharp near-daily reversals continue to
dominate the market.
Googled Again
March 1, 2006, 8:15 am
Don't be surprised that the markets
couldn't make new highs -- we're still in a sell signal, after all.
Reversals of Fortune
February 28, 2006, 8:18 am
Where are the trending markets of
yesteryear? A new study reveals they are gone.
SOX It To Me
February 27, 2006, before
12:00 am
Fred adapts a key technical tool to the
Philly Semi Index.
All's Quiet
February 24, 2006, 1:08 am
Quiet before the storm? Or just plain old
quiet?
Never Oversold
February 23, 2006, 8:55 am
An upside breakout is due any moment, but
it will start from a dull neutral position -- not a high-potential
oversold condition.
Still on Holiday
February 22, 2006, 2:25 am
Yesterday's market action was no action at
all.
The Big Neutral
February 21, 2006, before
12:00 am
There are a huge number of neutral
indicators -- just when the market is poised to break out of its
trading range.
A Bullish Skeptic
February 17, 2006, 3:12 am
A buy signal is just around the corner, but
Fred thinks it may be a disappointment.
Take a Break --
Please!
February 16, 2006, 6:18 am
The market needs to show some weakness, or
the present strength can't last.
Just Like Old Times
February 15, 2006, 2:24 am
Yesterday strength came back into the
traditional leaders of this market.
Ready to Leave the
Range
February 14, 2006, 8:13 am
The market will break out soon -- the bear
will do it's last, worst damage, and then the next buy signal.
Putting Gold on Hold
February 13, 2006, before
12:00 am
Fred takes some quick profits in gold, and
dials up the telecom sector.
Failed Test
February 10, 2006, 8:44 am
Stocks couldn't break out of their trading
range, but this may be part of a bottoming process.
Wednesday's Market
Was Fair of Face
February 9, 2006, 2:17 am
But some technical conditions weakened
substantially.
Buying Opportunity
Coming Up
February 8, 2006, 8:42 am
Stocks are finally showing some real
weakness, and eventually that's where rallies come from.
The Strength to Go
Nowhere
February 7, 2006, 8:44 am
The market may not be going up, but the
good news is that it's not going down.
Looking for Support
February 6, 2006, before
12:00 am
Fred sees lots of places the market could
use to stage a speedy recovery.
That Was Strong?
February 3, 2006, 8:40 am
Yes, despite appearances, stocks yesterday
revealed underlying technical strength.
Google? What's a
Google?
February 2, 2006, 8:15 am
Stocks shrugged off the search giant's
earnings shock -- the trading range lives!
Market to Greenspan:
Huh?
February 1, 2006, 8:42 am
Stocks' reaction to the Maestro's last FOMC
meeting were as confusing as one of his speeches.
Maestro's
Curtain Call
January 31, 2006,
9:00 am
Markets should be quiet today until
Alan Greenspan gives his farewell performance.
Post-Recovery
Diagnosis
January 30, 2006,
before 12:00 am
Stocks have mostly made up for the Friday
mini-crash a week ago. Where do we go from here?
Spot
the Fake
January 27, 2006,
1:43 am
Which market is real? Last Friday's
rout, or yesterday's strength?
We
Have a Double Dip
January 26, 2006,
2:06 am
The SI sell signal has arrived, while
the S&P 500 clings to its 50-day moving average.
Inevitable,
But Hopefully Brief
January 25, 2006,
8:42 am
The sell signal is now a certainty this
week. But the seeds of the next rally are already being sown.
A
Scrawny Bounce
January 24, 2006,
1:33 am
That was it? Fred did some selling,
and plans to do some more.
Sell
the Bounce
January 23, 2006,
before 12:00 am
The S&P 500's 50-day moving average
may set up stocks for a short term rally -- take advantage of it!
"Never
Mind..."
January 20, 2006,
8:59 am
Wednesday's big drop was reversed, in
many cases more than reversed.
Hanging
In There
January 19, 2006,
8:50 am
Yesterday's wreckage revealed signs
of market strength -- but a sell signal still lies in the near future.
Disappointment
January 18, 2006,
8:04 am
Earnings from Yahoo and Intel have brought
the "double dip sell signal" perilously close.
Locked
and Loaded, but Still Long
January 17, 2006,
before 12:00 am
The Summary Index is now primed for
a "double dip sell," but Fred's staying long until it
actually happens.
Still
Consolidating
January 13, 2006,
8:42 am
The market is still showing classic
signs of consolidation.
Getting
a Little Longer
January 12, 2006,
8:42 am
With positive indicators at a record
high, Fred does a little buying.
Dictionary
Perfect
January 11, 2006,
7:57 am
Yesterday was exactly what consolidations
look like, and Fred prepares to do a little buying.
Waiting
for the Dip
January 10, 2006,
9:12 am
Continued strength brings consolidation
nearer, and Fred contemplates how to buy the dip.
The
Double Dip Trip
January 9, 2006, before
12:00 am
A poor choice lies ahead: a Summary
Index double-dip sell, or a Quick Summary Index sell.
Betting
on a Trifecta?
January 6, 2006, 7:30
am
A new high by the Dow will make three
for three -- and confirm a classic Dow Theory buy signal.
All
We Need is a Little More Volume
Thursday,
January 5, 2006, 8:45 am
Then, perhaps, all the indices will
follow the S&P 500 into new high ground.
Okay,
Convince Me!
January 4, 2006, 8:52
am
Fred was impressed by yesterday's attack
on the highs -- but a breakout is another matter.
A
Happy 2005, A Nervous 2006
January 3, 2006, before
12:00 am
Fred looks back on strong portfolio
performance, and worries about market weakness ahead.
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