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Fred Goodman: 2004
Happy New Year Pullback
December 31, 2004, 8:51 am
Fred still expects a rocky start to 2005.
Rhyming Into the New Year
December 30, 2004, 8:45 am
Will today's current market history continue
to track 1999's?
A Tax-Smart Shake-Up
December 29, 2004, 8:54 am
Fred plans to redeploy assets in his
portfolio, and fool the taxman at the same time.
Smart Money Talks
December 28, 2004, 8:43 am
Intraday trading patterns and commercial
futures activity points to a pullback.
Seasonal Drift
December 27, 2004, 12:00
am
The coming mid-holiday week should be slow
-- and upwardly biased.
Fred's Price/Volume Christmas Carol
December 23, 2004, 12:42
am
Fred signs off for the holidays with a pair
of now-and-then holiday charts.
Christmas Present, Christmas Past
December 22, 2004, 8:47 am
It's still getting to look at lot like
Christmas -- Christmas 1999, that is.
Volume Fluctuations
December 21, 2004, 7:20 am
Look for a low volume rally, and then a high
volume pullback for the holidays.
Shades of Christmas Past
December 20, 2004, 8:47 am
Trading this season reminds Fred of the
holiday patterns of 1999.
Sevened Out
December 17, 2004, 8:52 am
No buy signal -- and maybe a pullback
instead.
New High, New Buy
December 16, 2004, 8:20 am
We're on the verge of a new Quick Summary
Index buy signal.
Absolutely Positive
December 15, 2004, 9:41 am
We're an inch away from an important bullish
shift in the number of positive indicators.
News Highs
December 14, 2004, 8:14 am
News lifted some indices to new highs -- is
this the start of something bigger?
The Set-Up
December 13, 2004, before
12:00 am
With almost no positive indicators left,
things might get bad enough for a great buying opportunity.
Release of Tension
December 10, 2004, 7:49 am
An amazing number of overextended indicators
have already worked off the excesses.
Sorry State
December 9, 2004, 7:44 am
The market continues to show all the classic
signs of basic weakness.
Deranged
December 8, 2004, 7:20 am
The S&P 500 broke out of it's ultra-narrow
trading range yesterday -- with a bang.
Stuck in Neutral
December 7, 2004, 12:00 am
The market could use a good pullback from
which to make a new run at the highs.
A Correction is Due
December 6, 2004, before
12:00 am
It doesn't have to be a rout -- but at least
it will be a rest. Be ready.
Tipping the Cap
December 3, 2004, 7:04 am
Large-cap stocks stole the show yesterday
from their small-cap rivals.
The Sell Signal and the Uptrend
December 2, 2004, 9:00 am
Here's a paradox: Fred is buying stocks,
despite his new sell signal.
Nearing the Turn
December 1, 2004, 6:34 am
A Summary Index "double-dip sell signal" is
likely to come at today's close.
The Pros Turn Con
November 30, 2004, 6:54 am
The Commitments of Traders reports reveal
professional traders getting bearish.
Digesting the Turkey
November 29, 2004, before
12:00 am
Fred tries to make sense of last week's low
volume holiday trading.
Test Passed
November 24, 2004, 8:50 am
The market successfully tested support from
the January 2002 highs -- for the moment.
Retracement
November 23, 2004, 8:42 am
Yesterday's rise retraced 50% of Friday's
drop. That means another test.
Beginning to Feel Like Fall
November 22, 2004, before
12:00 am
The indicators are deteriorating, and a sell
signal can't be far off.
Turndown
November 19, 2004, 8:32 am
The Summary Index reverses itself -- but the
double dip sell signal is still some time away.
Stay the Course, Of Course
November 18, 2004, 3:10 am
There's a double dip sell signal in the
future, but in the meantime, why worry?
Take a Break Before the Holiday
November 16, 2004, 8:26 am
Fred looks for higher highs in 2004, but
thinks the markets may take a rest here, first.
Smart -- Like 1999
November 15, 2004, before
12:00 am
The Smart Money Indicator reminds Fred of
1999 -- for at least a while, that's a good thing.
Sweet 17
November 12, 2004, 7:31 am
A Summary Index sell signal -- at least a
weak one, in the midst of an uptrend, is now inevitable.
Introducing the "Trend Indicator"
November 11, 2004, 8:34 am
Fred unveils an important and exciting new
technical tool.
Tomorrow Never Comes
November 10, 2004, 8:49 am
If we don't get a sell signal today or
tomorrow, we may not get one for weeks.
The Streak is Over
November 9, 2004, 7:12 am
But a big bull move could be just beginning,
if we make it through the next couple days.
Streaking Toward a Sell
November 8, 2004, before
12:00 am
The market's on a near-historic winning
streak, but it's setting up an inevitable sell signal.
Tread Carefully -- But Tread!
November 5, 2004, 7:48 am
No doubt about it, the market's on the move.
But it's close to over-extended, too.
A Pause to Refresh, Then...
November 4, 2004, 8:50 am
Fred says the market needs a quick rest
before the next leg up.
Entry Point
November 3, 2004, 8:44 am
A post-election rally won't necessarily be
the best time to buy stocks.
Fair and Balanced
November 2, 2004, 8:21 am
The technical position of the market is as
divided as the election.
And Now, We Wait
November 1, 2004, before
12:00 am
The election will be decisive for America,
and for the technical condition of the market.
Bull Tracks
October 29, 2004, 7:41 am
Lots of technical evidence points to the
upside -- at least for the moment.
What a Day!
October 28, 2004, 8:52 am
The S&P 500 Price/Volume Chart has given a
classic short-term buy signal.
Out of Order
October 27, 2004, 5:22 am
Did yesterday's big upmove come too soon?
Some indicators think it may have been important.
Wait and See
October 25, 2004, 4:18 am
A week till the election, and key technical
signals are getting cued up.
Growth in the Driver's Seat
October 22, 2004, 7:20 am
Growth is outperforming value, and that's a
good sign for the market.
In Nothing, Something
October 21, 2004, 6:39 am
Fred suspects that this quiet market may
have a big surprise in store for us.
A Peek at the Bleak
October 20, 2004, 7:22 am
Negatives abound -- so save some powder for
the inevitable buying opportunity.
Eyeing a Buying
October 18, 2004, before
12:00 am
Technicals are starting to get negative
enough to put a buy signal in view.
Below Average
October 15, 2004, 8:32 am
The important S&P 500 200-day moving average
has turned down -- and the index has moved below it, on the same day.
Going Negative
October 14, 2004, 9:01 am
You think the presidential campaign is bad?
So is the market.
Reverse Angle Replay
October 13, 2004, 9:00 am
Tuesday undid Monday. Now the market plays
wait-and-see.
Post-Columbus Backlash
October 12, 2004, 8:47 am
Quiet Monday -- but maybe a not so quiet
week.
Sector Vectors
October 11, 2004, before
12:00 am
Fred starts a review of the major stock
sectors -- and a new position in gold.
Size Matters
October 8, 2004, 8:21 am
When you know which way to bet, how to you
know how big to make the bet?
Upside-Down Double Dip?
October 7, 2004, 8:08 am
The Summary Index is headed toward a
"secondary sell signal" -- but in the meantime, markets move higher.
Filters, Trendlines and Funds
October 6, 2004, 11:13 am
Fred talks about technical techniques new
and old, and two new mutual funds.
Almost, But Not Quite
October 5, 2004, 9:04 am
The market flirted with a breakout, but
volume and momentum fell.
Big Day, Big Questions
October 4, 2004, 12:05 am
Fred examines a market at the crossroads --
and his own trading style.
Mercky Waters
October 1, 2004, 5:02 am
The troubles of a single drug company masked
a pretty good day in the market.
History Upside-Down
September 30, 2004, 8:21
am
Fred finds remarkable inverse parallels
between the past bear and the present bull.
Looking Across the Valley
September 29, 2004, 7:41
am
In the midst of a still-new sell signal,
Fred sees brighter days just ahead.
Moving Rapidly Slowly
September 28, 2004, 7:32
am
Technicals are quickly shifting to negative
-- but volume is drying up again.
The Sell Signal has Arrived
September 27, 2004, before
12:00 am
Okay... so now what do we do about it?
Storm Warning
September 24, 2004, 8:54
am
Sell signal coming -- but will it be a
tropical storm, a hurricane, or just rain?
Trend Reversal
September 23, 2004, 7:51
am
Get ready: yesterday's drop could bring a
Summary Index sell signal in a matter of days.
The Fed as Expected
September 22, 2004, 7:58
am
Yesterday's FOMC announcement had no
surprises -- which is always a good thing.
Stalled
September 21, 2004, 8:50
am
Why is the market like Fred's car? Read this
and see.
Tricky New Year
September 20, 2004, 8:38
am
Was Friday's volume spike just an aberration
of Thursday's Jewish New Year?
Sell In May, and... What, Exactly?
September 17, 2004, 4:26
am
Is volume ever going to come back
into this market?
Weaker Weakness than Expected
September 16, 2004, 6:47
am
Fred got the weakness he was looking for --
and it wasn't that bad.
Overextended?
September 15, 2004, 6:34
am
The market has risen in 17 of the last 22
sessions. How long can this go on?
Coming Back to Life
September 14, 2004, 4:08
am
Volume is creeping back as the market creeps
higher.
Sun Shines: Make Hay
Monday,
September 13, 2004, 1:40 am
Our buy signals are in profit, and there's
still room to grow.
Taking It Laterally
September 10, 2004, 2:32
am
The NASDAQ is showing signs of life on the
Price/Volume Charts, but markets are still basically churning.
Market in the Middle
September 9, 2004, 8:47 am
Volume is better, but still low -- the
market is still drifting.
Transition Period
September 8, 2004, 8:48 am
We move from summer to fall. How soon will
we move from buy signal to sell signal?
Happy New Year, and Happy Birthday
September 7, 2004, before
12:00 am
With Labor Day done, the new market year
begins -- and Fred's Discretionary Technical Portfolio turns two.
The Trigger Approaches
September 2, 2004, 3:01 am
The Summary Index is close to its sell
signal trigger level -- but the signal itself could be weeks away.
Escape From New York
August 30, 2004, before
12:00 am
Traders are vanishing -- and they've taken
the volume with them.
The Labor Day Cycle
August 27, 2004, 8:59 am
Fred detects a seasonal cycle to the Labor
Day holiday (and it's not good).
Energy Crisis
August 26, 2004, 8:50 am
The indicators are becoming too positive,
too fast. Will the market run out of upside energy?
Marking Time
August 25, 2004,
8:44 am
Markets are in do-nothing mode ahead of the
holiday and the GOP convention.
Holiday Weak
August 24, 2004, 8:49 am
Yesterday's low-volume decline was a bullish
sign, but consider the risks too.
Four Out of Five Technicians Agree! But...
August 23, 2004, before
12:00 am
...but the market always does whatever it
has to so surprise the majority.
Did I Buy? Yes. Am I Cautious? Yes!
August 20, 2004, 8:50 am
Fred adds to his equity positions, but looks
to a rocky pre-election season.
Shifting into Secondary Gear
August 19, 2004, 8:42 am
A sudden bullish swing in eleven indicators
ushers in a secondary buy signal.
Show Me the Volume!
August 18, 2004, 8:46 am
The indicators are looking great, but
without volume it may not mean much.
Bouncing Ball Becomes Breakout?
August 17, 2004, 8:47 am
Fred sees potential in this go-nowhere
market -- but says wait till it proves itself.
Goodbye Charley?
August 16, 2004, before
12:00 am
Last week was a market hurricane. Has it
burned itself out?
Double Dip: Done
August 13, 2004, 7:49 am
The double dip Fred predicted has happened.
Wouldn't you know it's Friday the 13th?
Another Day, Another Double-Dip Deferred
August 12, 2004, 7:50 am
Fred still hasn't acted on last week's buy
signal. But there are tentative signs that might make him take a small
bite.
Double-Dip Delayed, By Days At Least
August 11, 2004, 8:55 am
Yesterday's rally was encouraging for the
moment, but the volume wasn't there.
Going to Extremes
August 10, 2004, 8:51 am
We're moving toward the point of negativity
where high probability rally signals are born.
Experience is the Only Holy Grail
August 9, 2004, before
12:00 am
On what it takes to turn technical
indicators into real investment success.
Now You Know Why I Waited
August 6, 2004, 8:53 am
It looks like the "double dip" Fred
predicted is on the way. Be careful out there.
Congratulations: It's a Buy
August 5, 2004, 8:54 am
Fred takes profits on his shorts, and
contemplates how to best play the new buy signal.
A Double-Dip?
August 4, 2004, 8:53 am
A buy signal may well come at today's close,
but Fred is in no hurry to play it.
Go, Speed Racer!
August 3, 2004, 8:51 am
A buy signal will probably come tomorrow --
and it may qualify as a "big" one.
The Book on Buy Signals
August 2, 2004, before
12:00 am
Lessons from history on what makes a good
buy signal: if the next one comes quickly, it could be a good one.
Patience is a Virtue
July 30, 2004, 3:40 am
Fred cautions readers to wait for the
Summary Index buy signal -- it's coming!
The Buy Signal is Left Outside
July 29, 2004, 5:50 am
"Outside days" presage big moves -- but
yesterday's delayed the buy signal.
It's Today -- Or It's Not
July 28, 2004, 7:48 am
If the market doesn't make a stand today,
we'll have to wait at least a week for a buy signal.
Triggered
July 27, 2004, 8:05 am
Yesterday made slight new lows, but it set
up the Quick Summary Index for a coming buy signal.
Out of Weakness, Strength
July 26, 2004, before
12:00 am
Be patient -- but things are getting so
negative, a buy signal can't be far off.
Trappings
July 23, 2004, 8:39 am
Bull traps. Bear traps. They're nothing
compared to the trading range trap.
We Won't Get Fooled Again
July 22, 2004, 8:55 am
Fred's indicators kept him from a bull trap,
and now he sidesteps a possible bear trap, too.
Too Instant Gratification
July 21, 2004, 2:49 am
Yesterday's big move kept the indicators
from reaching a definitive bottom.
The End is Near?
July 20, 2004, 8:29 am
Fred's now seeing evidence that the market
is overextended to the downside.
Dangerous Liaison
July 19, 2004, before
12:00 am
The 200-day and 50-day moving averages of
the S&P 500 could soon cross -- in the wrong direction.
Close-Up and Personal
July 16, 2004, 8:43 am
Is this trading range like a distorted
photograph? Maybe it's time to back up a bit.
Tipping Point?
July 15, 2004, 8:46 am
Volume is up, technicals are down. But so
far we're still stuck in the range.
Trust in the Thrust?
July 14, 2004, 8:51 am
The Thrust Oscillator says sell -- but
overall, it's still a trading range.
Channel Surfing
July 13, 2004, 8:42 am
The market's dynamics are keying off its
position within the trading range.
Cycle Logical?
July 12, 2004, before
12:00 am
Most cyclical theories of the market don't
make sense -- but here are a couple that do.
Gathering Speed, but a Speed-Bump Ahead
July 9, 2004, 8:49 am
Downside momentum is picking up, but today
we face potentially important support.
She's (Not) Got Legs
July 8, 2004, 8:46 am
Yesterday was a nice relief, but we're still
moving down the trading range.
Still Neutral -- But Cautious
July 7, 2004, 8:27 am
Deteriorating indicators predicted
yesterday's drop, but on balance we're still rangebound.
The Bear Case
July 6, 2004, before 12:00
am
We're still just in a trading range so far,
but it's prudent to look at the negative signs.
And They're Off
July 2, 2004, 3:00 am
The second quarter ended with a whimper and
the third started with a bang.
Crowd Pleaser
July 1, 2004, 3:00 am
Game, set and match. A difficult quarter
ends quietly.
Are there Problems? Absolutely!
June 30, 2004, 3:00 am
Fred worries about the tiny difference
between advances and declines.
One Down and One To Go
June 29, 2004, 3:00 am
Bush eliminated the Iraq
wild card two days early, but we still have to wait for the FOMC.
Bracing for the Unexpected
June 28, 2004, before
12:00 am
Fred's getting extra cautious ahead of a
tricky week of big events.
Quiet, But Good
June 25, 2004, 3:57 am
Beneath yesterday's sleepy facade was a good
technical day.
Does One Good Day Deserve Another?
June 24, 2004, 7:10 am
Yesterday was the way it's supposed to be.
But will it be back to the same old trading range today?
Long Time?
June 23, 2004, 7:26 am
Readers want to know why Fred is staying
long during this Summary Index sell signal.
Strict Neutrality
June 22, 2004, 8:15 am
22 neutral indicators! That's only happened
four times before, and always during a sell signal.
Our Date with Destiny
June 21, 2004, before
12:00 am
Markets are frozen in the headlights of the
June 30 mega-events -- but they may surprise us by coming to life before
then.
Mild Seasoning
June 18, 2004, 8:19 am
We're in the doldrums. But don't let your
guard down.
Talking Trading Sense
June 17, 2004, 8:15 am
A smart trader considers the costs of
trading, and measures them against potential gains.
Trading the Trading Range
June 16, 2004, 8:24 am
This kind of market calls for a special
approach to technical analysis.
The Sell Signal Arrives
June 15, 2004, 7:23 am
We've moved up through the trading range,
and now it's time to take profits.
On the Brink
June 14, 2004, before
12:00 am
Unless there's a rally today, the March 31
buy and the May 25 "secondary buy" are history.
Sell Signal is Possible
June 10, 2004, 6:18 am
Back in the area of the highs on the S&P, a
sell could come next week unless the indicators perk up.
Shhh!
June 9, 2004, 7:47 am
A quiet market prepares to get quieter --
while the indicators get more and more positive.
Speed Bumps?
June 8, 2004, 7:21 am
With yesterday's big move, the market now
faces some real resistance.
It's Not Different This Time
June 7, 2004, before 12:00
am
Don't believe reports trashing the put/call
ratio and NYSE specialist short ratio -- believe the indicators!
Apollo 13?
June 4, 2004, 3:22 am
Fred Goodman
Is the buy signal still go-for-launch? Or,
Houston, do we have a problem?
The Missing Link
June 3, 2004, 8:41 am
There's just one problem with the market's
technical condition: volume is too low.
Nothing Negative
June 2, 2004, 8:46 am
Of Fred's 29 major indicators, today there
is not a single negative one!
A Positive Surprise
June 1, 2004, before 12:00
am
Fred's new study shows that technically
overbought markets act a lot different than you'd ever guess.
Making History
May 28, 2004, 8:46 am
An indicator that (so far) has never missed
made one of its few signals in over half a century.
Kicking Back and Waiting
May 27, 2004, 8:41 am
The pre-holiday lull is already upon us --
next week, favorable seasonals come into play.
The Tide Turns
May 26, 2004, 8:40 am
Coming right up: a test of the S&P 500
50-day moving average.
We Got Our Signal -- Big Time
May 25, 2004, before 12:00
am
The market was seemingly quiet, but the
indicators spoke loudly.
It's All Coming Together for the Bulls
May 24, 2004, before 12:00
am
There will be a rare "secondary" SI buy
signal today -- and scads of indicators are turning positive at the same
time.
A Secondary Buy Signal?
May 21 2004, 8:55 am
The Summary Index is poised to lay a new buy
signal on top of the one it already gave on March 31.
That Was the Bounce That Was
May 20, 2004, 2:55 am
And now we wait, while the indicators
patiently move to the bull side.
Signs of Life
May 19, 2004, 8:38 am
Indicators Fred hasn't heard from since the
March 2003 bottom are starting to line up bullish.
Bounce Alert
May 18, 2004, 7:17 am
Key indicators are turning bullish -- time
to clean house and prepare for a bounce.
What a Day!
May 13, 2004, before 4:02
am
We're not out of the woods, but yesterday's
stunning reversal was clearly bullish.
Extreme Sports
May 10, 2004, before 12:00
am
The number of negative indicators is at an
extreme reading of 22 -- a rally has to be near.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
May 7, 2004, 8:48 am
The jobs report will roil the markets for a
while -- but we're still in a low-volume trading range.
I Like To Watch
May 6, 2004, 7:13 am
Jobs on Friday -- another excuse for the
market to watch, instead of trade.
Just as I Predicted -- Sort Of
May 5, 2004, 2:41 am
Fred had it right for FOMC day, but the
market still managed to throw a curve-ball.
Walking into the Sweet Spot
May 4, 2004, 8:51 am
Yesterday's rally wasn't exactly impressive,
but technicals and seasonals are beginning to converge to the upside.
Brace for a Bounce
May 3, 2004, before 12:00
am
And maybe a big one -- we could be close to
a double buy signal.
A Bounce Coming Up
April 30, 2004, 8:41 am
We got Price/Volume sell loops -- but Fred
thinks there's a bounce in our future anyway.
So Bad It's Good?
April 29, 2004, 12:00 am
Sell loops were completed yesterday, but the
indicators are rapidly approaching a negative extreme.
Still Circling
April 28, 2004, 8:26 am
No resolution to the Price/Volume loops yet
-- but the positive seasonals may come into play next week.
Still Hanging on Loops
April 27, 2004, 9:25 am
The Price/Volume loops still have all their
options open.
There's Life in the Loops
April 26, 2004, before
12:00 am
The Price/Volume Charts are coming into play
-- and probably on the upside.
Curb Your Enthusiasm
April 23, 2004, 8:13 am
Fred didn't get shaken out on Tuesday, but
he's not chasing yesterday's bull move either.
Short Term Troubles
April 22, 2004, 7:56 am
The market calmed yesterday, but all the
Price/Volume charts confirmed sell loops.
Thanks, Alan
April 21, 2004, 9:07 am
The market evaluates the reality of higher
rates sooner rather than later.
Big Little Market
April 20, 2004, 8:42 am
Riddle me this: why is the market like a
children's book?
Reverse Angle Replay
April 19, 2004, before
12:00 am
It's like February all over again. But the
indecision won't last forever.
Eye of the Storm
April 16, 2004, 7:16 am
Yesterday's indecisive action was on high
volume -- the market may be close to making up it's mind.
Goodbye Easy Comparables
April 15, 2004, 7:20 am
With the bull market maturing, it's no
longer easy for stocks to look good.
Mixed Bag
April 14, 2004, 8:48 am
It was a bad day, but a new indicator is
just gave a buy signal.
Give Me a Slow Hand
April 13, 2004, 8:47 am
The market remains technically robust
despite low volume, and Fred reviews the details of the RSI.
Will the Fighting Fight the Tape?
April 12, 2004, before
12:00 am
Fred expects a continued up-move -- but
worries that Iraq violence may derail things.
Yesterday Was a Good Day... Really!
April 8, 2004, 2:54 am
Behind apparent weakness was real technical
strength.
Uprising in Iraq, Not the Market
April 7, 2004, 7:41 am
With low holiday volume, the rally probably
can't pick up until next week.
Problems in Volume
April 6, 2004, 8:52 am
Great rally? Yeah, but the volume has dried
up again!
It's Great Ointment, But there's a Fly In It
April 5, 2004, before
12:00 am
Volume is back -- but there's just one
indicator that's rubbing Fred the wrong way.
So Far, So Good
April 2, 2004, 8:32 am
Our new buy signal got off to a great start.
But Fred's still worried about volume.
Buy Signal!
April 1, 2004, 8:43 am
It's here! The low volume is still
troubling, but things look great for small and midcap stocks.
A Buy by Today, or Maybe by Tomorrow
March 31, 2004, 7:45 am
It looks like Fred is going to get his April
Fools Day buy signal (and that's no joke).
Overhead Resistance was Futile
March 30, 2004, 8:49 am
There will be some weakness today, but Fred
expects the rally to keep going.
Reverse Engines!
March 29, 2004, before
12:00 am
Winners became losers last week, and losers
became winners. Perfect for an April Fools Day buy signal.
Big Rally + Small Volume = Big Question
March 26, 2004, 7:32 am
Was it for real? Maybe yes, but the volume
argues for no.
A Big Bowl of Nothing
March 25, 2004, 8:13 am
All that happened yesterday was that nothing
happened.
Waiting for April Fools
March 24, 2004, 7:42 am
Based on traditional new-month strength,
April Fools Day could be the start of a real rally.
Destiny Takes a Hand
March 23, 2004, 8:53 am
From the rubble of a terrifying day in the
market, a buy signal becomes inevitable.
Low-Volume Languishing
March 22, 2004, before
12:00 am
We could be just a day or two away from a
buy signal -- but it's not yet inevitable.
Why Fred Doesn't Want a Buy Signal
March 19, 2004, 4:18 am
Why settle for a Quick Summary Index buy
signal, when a full-fledged Summary Index buy signal is just around the
corner?
Bracing for a Buy, So Soon?
March 18, 2004, 8:55 am
As the market shrugs off bad news, we could
be looking at another buy signal in a matter of days.
Something for Everybody -- and Nobody
March 17, 2004, 7:46 am
Don' t like the market? Wait 15 minutes.
Looking Across the Valley
March 16, 2004, 8:46 am
The great thing about market weakness is
that it always sets up the next buy signal.
Returning to the Scene of the Crime
March 15, 2004, before
12:00 am
Friday's big rally was on low-volume, and
may be no more than a snap-back to the point of break-down from the
trading range.
Leaving Home on the Range
March 12, 2004, 6:11 am
The buy signal ends precisely when the
trading range has been violated -- to the downside.
Critical Mess
March 11, 2004, 6:51 am
Volume is back, and it's starting to look
nasty. Here's a major review of the indicators.
Fred Takes the Fifth
March 10, 2004, 6:44 am
Like clockwork, the first-five-days
seasonals have played out again this month.
Low-Volume Rotation
March 9, 2004, 5:35 am
Moves within the trading range on low volume
don't mean anything.
The Big Squeeze
March 8, 2004, before
12:00 am
The trading range gets narrower and
narrower. Only volume can make a breakout happen.
Testing, Testing, 123
March 5, 2004, 4:52 am
This low-volume market could be setting up
for a test of the bottom of our narrow trading range.
Same Trading Range, New Technique
March 4, 2004, 8:57 am
Fred unveils a first look at a new tool for
applying Price/Volume Charting to individual stocks.
Fourth Down
March 3, 2004, 1:45 am
The trading range now has four tops above
1155 -- when do we go for the goal?
But... Where is the Volume?
March 2, 2004, 7:58 am
An in-depth study of trading volume makes
yesterday's advance even more questionable.
The Doctor Is In
March 1, 2004, before
12:00 am
Dr. Goodman puts the market on his couch for
some much needed cycle-analysis.
Waiting for a Break
February 27, 2004, 8:46 am
Still in the trading range -- but making
plans for the breakout.
Range of Possibilities
Thursday,
February 26, 2004, 5:39 am
The market's losing streak ended -- but
leaves us stuck in the trading range.
The Sign of the Five
February 25, 2004, 8:42 am
Fred looks at what has happened in history
when the market has dropped five days in a row -- like it just did.
Tech Dreck
February 24, 2004, 8:45 am
The market's darling sector has suddenly
become the dog.
The 6% Solution
February 23, 2004, before
12:00 am
We're stuck in a 6% trading range -- but one
of the most reliable indicators of all is turning very bullish.
Wha' Hoppen?
February 20, 2004, 8:08 am
Everything was going along so well until the
bottom fell out. Just more trading range behavior?
Don't Fence Me In
February 19, 2004, 8:47 am
Trading ranges aren't fun -- but you have to
stay alert, because they all eventually end.
Disappointing Points
February 18, 2004, 8:40 am
Love the rally? Fred worries that all was
not as rosy at it seemed.
New Economy Down, Old Economy Up
February 17, 2004, before
12:00 am
Old-fashioned basic materials have been
beating new-fangled tech!
A Rest, and Then... A Rest?
Friday,
February 13, 2004, 8:28 am
A surging market took a break -- and now
comes a holiday.
Congratulations: It's a Buy!
February 12, 2004, 8:48 am
In less than two weeks, we've now gone from
a sell signal to a buy signal.
Maestro, If You Please...
February 11, 2004, before
12:00 am
It's Greenspeak day... and it could be what
we need to ignite a buy signal.
Loop Pooped
Tuesday,
February 10, 2004, 2:51 am
The Price/Volume buy-loops failed to
materialize -- but a QSI buy signal waits in the wings.
Getting It Out of Our System?
February 9, 2004, before
12:00 am
Just a week after a sell signal, we could be
looking at a buy within days!
Day Off
February 6, 2004, 2:14 am
Against a quiet market, Fred listens to the
Fed and finds a nifty new ETF.
The Sweet Spot Goes Sour
February 5, 2004, 8:45 am
The first five days of the month are
historically the best. What happened? Our sell signal, that's what!
This Quiet Won't Last
February 4, 2004, 1:02 am
The market has eked out gains in quiet
sessions, but its days are numbered.
The Rot Spreads -- And Fast
February 3, 2004, 1:07 am
The indicators are turning negative with
blinding speed.
The Sell Signal is Official
February 2, 2004, before
12:00 am
It's not if, it's not when. It's now -- and
there could be a nice bounce here to sell into.
It's Just A Shot Away
January 30, 2004, 3:29 am
A Summary Index sell signal is inevitable at
the close -- and the Price/Volume loops have already turned.
Freaky Friday?
January 29, 2004, 2:19 am
At this rate, we could have a Summary Index
sell signal as soon as tomorrow.
Absolutely Correct
January 28, 2004, 7:49 am
Smells like a correction is in the wind, but
it's still to early to jump out.
Last Minute Rescue
January 27, 2004, 2:36 am
Yesterday volume came in as the market went
up in the final hour.
Bears Today, Bulls Tomorrow?
January 26, 2004, before
12:00 am
Short-term signals are getting negative, but
some longer-term ones are shaping up bullish.
The Big Get Bigger
January 23, 2004, 8:48 am
Will the pundits finally be right? Large-cap
stocks come to life.
No Second Guessing
Thursday,
January 22, 2004, 8:41 am
Is this a replay of last April's bull run?
Four In A Row
January 21, 2004, 2:51 am
The indicators are unchanged again -- so the
buy signal goes onward.
Drink Up!
January 20, 2004, before
12:00 am
What's not to like about new highs?
Nothing... except that they won't last forever.
Stronger Longer?
January 16, 2004, 8:48 am
Moves always last longer than you expect.
But today's bullish sentiment is worrying Fred.
Earnings Seasonings
January 15, 2004, 3:10 am
The market is technically overextended, so
even good earnings news might be bad news.
Complexion Problem
January 14, 2004, 2:17 am
Fred says the complexion of the market is
changing -- for the worse.
A Good Place to Go Nowhere
January 13, 2004, 5:27 am
Technically, the market was a wash yesterday
-- we remain stuck in buy mode.
Storm Clouds Gathering
January 12, 2004, before
12:00 am
No sell signal yet, but more and more
indicators are pointing to trouble ahead.
High Five
January 9, 2004, 2:50 am
The first five days of January are usually
strong. And they were.
Chop Shop
January 8, 2004, 8:40 am
Was the market choppy? Yes. Was it strong,
too? Yes.
On Stand-Buy
January 7, 2004, 3:14 am
With Fred's Summary Index now above 17.00,
it's just a matter of staying long until the inevitable sell signal.
A Date with Destiny... Again
January 6, 2004, 4:01 am
This rally is great (and it's great to be
long)... but the bullish technicals can only be stretched so far.
Coming into Strength
January 5, 2004, before
12:00 am
There are a lot of reasons to expect a
strong market this week.
Out with the Old
January 2, 2004, 12:00 am
Fred's eager to get back to a normal market
-- but the negative signs are starting to pile up.
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